NEWS
New Pope Just Dropped
Julius Pepperwood - tenor
Vatican White Smoke signaled the arrival of a new pope, and the market rallied Thursday as Pope Leo XIV arrived on the balcony, a man from Chicago named Bob.
The market was in truth reacting to the first major trade deal out of the White House, an agreement with the UK to lower tariffs on metal and cars, and encourage more trade. Under the deal, the UK still faces 10% tariffs on nearly everything from the U.S. 👀
Today's issue covers the first trade deal struck between the U.S. and the UK, crypto blowup while crypto stocks slide, and more.
Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 7 of 11 sectors closed green, with consumer discretionary (+1.18%) leading and health care (-0.9%) lagging.
S&P 500 Map - finviz
And here are the closing prices:
S&P 500 | 5,664 | +0.58% |
Nasdaq | 17,928 | +1.07% |
Russell 2000 | 2,026 | +1.85% |
Dow Jones | 41,368 | +0.62% |
STOCKS
Quantum Computing Stock More Than Quintuples Revenue
Remember when quantum computing was all the rage- back in… November, December? Let’s hope so, because D-Wave Quantum flew over 37% after reporting revenue that claimed more than 500% YoY. It pulled in more money since January as it had in all of 2024.
$QBTS ( ▲ 2.21% ) reported Q1 revenue of $15M, significantly beating estimates of $10.5M. EPS came in at -$0.02, better than the expected -$0.04. The revenue jump was driven by a $12.2M quantum computing system sale. CEO Alan Baratz called it the “most significant” quarter in the company’s history, citing quantum supremacy demonstration and increased commercial adoption. Retail sentiment remains extremely bullish.
“We recognized revenue on our first Advantage system sale to a major research institution, moved an additional customer application into commercial production, and became the first to demonstrate quantum supremacy over classical computing on a useful real-world problem. The end result was a record revenue and gross profit quarter." Baratz said.
The only thing that would hold back a smaller stock like this is that it has climbed 600%+ in the past six months.
D-Wave Quantum Inc - Stocks users sent $QBTS into the top of the trending tab
The Guideline The World Was Waiting For
Trump announced a new U.S.-U.K. trade deal, removing tariffs on British steel and aluminum while cutting car export duties to 10%. The agreement includes a $10B aircraft order for Boeing, though the buyer remains undisclosed.
Trump emphasized fast-tracking American goods through U.K. customs and expanding market access for U.S. beef, ethanol, and industrial products. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the deal “really important,” highlighting job creation and economic security. Retail sentiment remains neutral.
Just across the channel, the EU is telling the hall monitor on the U.S., preparing to take the U.S. to the WTO over Trump’s tariffs, calling them “unjustified” and harmful to European industries. The European Commission has launched a public consultation on countermeasures, targeting $107B worth of U.S. imports, including aircraft, vehicle parts, and agricultural goods. If trade talks fail, these tariffs will take effect.
On the China front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent heads out to Switzerland today t begin talks, and traders everywhere wish him godspeed.
STOCKS
Other Noteworthy Pops & Drops
Match Group ($MTCH -10%) fell to the lowest decliner on the S&P 500 after announcing a 13% workforce reduction despite beating Q1 estimates. Revenue came in at $831M vs. $827.5M expected, while EPS was $0.44 vs. $0.38 forecasted. Tinder’s monthly active users dropped 9% YoY, while Hinge’s revenue grew 23%.
Crocs ($CROX +9%) jumped after posting strong Q1 earnings, with EPS of $3 beating estimates of $2.49. Plastic clog revenue fell slightly to $937.33M but topped forecasts of $907.92M. Direct-to-consumer revenue grew 2.3%, while wholesale sales dipped 1.6%. The company withdrew its full-year guidance due to global trade uncertainty but emphasized market share opportunities. Retail sentiment remains bullish.
Peloton ($PTON -7%) fell after reporting a 13% decline in Q3 revenue, marking its third consecutive year-over-year drop. Revenue came in at $624M, slightly ahead of Wall Street’s estimate of $619M. Hardware sales dropped 27%, while subscription revenue fell 4% YoY. Peloton warned that Trump’s tariffs on aluminum components and apparel imports from China will result in a $5M drag on free cash flow in Q4.
Novavax ($NVAX +11%) surged after reporting Q1 revenue of $667M, far exceeding estimates of $344M. The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $975M-$1.025B, up from its prior forecast of $300M-$350M, driven by $603M in revenue recognized from terminated Advance Purchase Agreements. Novavax reiterated hopes for full FDA approval of its COVID-19 vaccine, which would trigger a $175M milestone payment from Sanofi.
Shopify ($SHOP -0.5%) fell after missing Q1 profit estimates and issuing cautious Q2 guidance. The company reported a net loss of $682M, far below analyst expectations for a $341M profit. Revenue came in at $2.36B, slightly ahead of forecasts. Shopify expects gross profit dollars to grow at a high-teens percentage rate in Q2, below analyst expectations of 21.4%.
OpenAI, Microsoft,and AMD executives testified before the Senate Commerce Committee, urging lawmakers to support policies that strengthen U.S. AI leadership amid competition from China. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman emphasized the need for public investment in infrastructure, while Microsoft President Brad Smith warned that export restrictions on AI chips could push global buyers toward Chinese alternatives. AMD CEO Lisa Su and CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator also spoke.
CRYPTO
Crypto Is Blowing Up, So What’s With Crypto Stocks
Bitcoin and Ethereum surged, seeming to track trade positivity after Trump announced a new U.S.-U.K. trade deal.
Bitcoin crossed $101K for the first time since February, rising 4.5% in 24 hours. Ethereum climbed past $2K, marking its highest level since March. Broader crypto markets rallied, with Sui ($SUI) leading gains, up 20%. Crypto-related stocks also moved higher, but the firms that reported their results today fell after hours. What gives?
$COIN ( ▼ 1.09% ) climbed today after announcing the $2.9B acquisition of crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, aiming to expand its options trading business. The stock fell after the firm reported a Q1 adjusted EPS at $1.94, slightly beating the expected $1.93. Revenue totaled $2.03B, falling short of the $2.1B estimate.
The firm also missed forward guidance for the current quarter, projecting up to $680M in revenue, below the Street’s hope for $707M. Even When Crypto is flying, its a very cyclical business. Transaction revenue fell 19% at the firm from the three months before, when Bitcoin jumped 77$ from $60k to above $100k.
Coinbase hopes its Deribit acquisition will diversify its revenue streams, as options trading is typically less cyclical than spot trading.
$MARA ( ▲ 4.76% ) also posted Q1 results that fell short of estimates, with EPS at -$1.55, significantly missing the expected -$0.52. Revenue reached $214M, slightly below the $216.94M estimate. The company highlighted its growing AI infrastructure focus, with plans for pilot deployments in modular data centers. The stock fell about 2% after hours.
Marathon Digital mines Bitcoin for a living, and the firm mined 5% fewer blocks in Q1’25 than it did in Q1’24. The firm produces 8% less overall, and its share of miner rewards fell. Its revenue jumped 30%, but it said that was because bitcoin jumped 77% in value. It also lost about $21M from the Bitcoin halving, or a once-every-four-year production decrease. The firm lost ($533.4M) in the quarter, compared to making $337.2M profit a year ago.
The firm attributed more than $500M in losses to the decline in Bitcoin prices in the short three-month period.
Marathon Digital Holdings -Stocktwits users are ‘extremely bullish’ despite the miss
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things
Economic data: FOMC Member Williams Speaks (6:15 am), Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks (6:45 am), Fed Waller Speaks (11:30 am), FOMC Member Williams Speaks (11:30 am).
Pre-Market Earnings: (Ocugen ($OCGN), InspireMD ($NSPR), Inuvo ($INUV), TeraWulf ($WULF), Enbridge ($ENB), Alpha Metallurgical ($AMR), AMC Networks ($AMCX),
After-Hour Earnings: NONE. Enjoy your weekend.