CLOSING BELL
Fly Me To The Moon
The market closed higher Thursday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq soaring to fresh records following the smash hit earnings results from Delta that sent airline stocks… flying. 🕊️
Bitcoin hit a couple new records, climbing nearly 8% this week so far. A 30-year bond auction today went relatively well, sending the yield slightly down and equities up. U.S. initial jobless claims came in lower, while continuing claims remained at a two-year high, but investors championed continued stability in the labor market.
All in all, a hot day and possibly a sneak preview of the earnings season to come? Time will tell.
Today's issue covers tariffs miss travel but hit Slim Jims, Uncle Sam becomes rare earth buyer #1, and more.
With the final numbers for indexes and the ETFs that track them, 9 of 11 sectors closed green, with discretionary $XLY ( ▲ 1.11% ) leading and communications $XLC ( ▼ 0.34% ) lagging.
S&P 500 $SPY ( ▲ 0.28% ) 6,280
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ ( ▼ 0.14% ) 22,829
Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▲ 0.51% ) 2,263
Dow Jones $DIA ( ▲ 0.45% ) 44,650
STOCKS
Hard To Tariff Travel, But Easy To Tax Slim Jims
Delta, ahem* flew to a four-month high after the firm restored its full year guidance, reporting earnings Thursday morning above estimates.
Per share profit still fell YoY, at $2.01 vs. Q2 ‘24s $2.36, but updated guidance painted a pretty picture for the second half of the year where consumers are more confident, trade negotiations are smoother, and travel demand overall increases.
The firm expects EPS of $5.25-$6.25, with free cash flow up to $4B.
It was a far call away from Q1’s report, when the firm cut its full year guidance, leading the way for an entire earnings season of shrugs and puzzled CEO faces blamed on trade mahem. Three months later, the tariff-queasy consumer everyone had imagined turned out to have flown just fine, generating slightly lower earnings but about the same revenue as the previous year.
The stock climbed $DAL ( ▲ 11.99% ) and helped lead all airlines higher.
$UAL ( ▲ 14.33% ) rose, alongside $AAL ( ▲ 12.72% ), $ALK ( ▲ 8.95% ), $ULCC ( ▲ 8.73% ) and $JBLU ( ▲ 7.8% ).
It was a wonderful day for services, but in stark contrast $CAG ( ▼ 4.37% ) a grocery and snack giant reported a 4.3% decline in net sales to $2.78B, below estimates, alongside an adjusted EPS miss at 56C, and a revenue miss.
The Slim Jim owner said the second half of the year would bring even further pain, as tariffs and inflation hurt the bottom line.
Chief Sean Connolly said not to expect miracles in fiscal 2026. “We expect elevated inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty to persist,” he said.
Levi posted after the bell, and climbed 7% when it raised its full-year guidance and said it was trying its best to wring out supply issues from its South Asian manufacturers in the face of levies.
The firm posted a full-year adjusted EPS above estimates, in the $1.29-$1.25 range, but weighed its guidance on the idea that China will bear the brunt of tariffs. Levi makes just 1% of its jeans in China, according to CNBC, and if tariffs are worse in the rest of the world, it will hurt its margins.
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocks News Stories
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Ford recalled over 850K vehicles in the U.S. due to engine stalling risks tied to a defective fuel pump module. Read more
Walmart recalled 850K Ozark Trail water bottles after three reported injuries linked to a faulty lid design, prompting safety concerns ahead of peak summer sales. Read more
Polestar reported a 38% YoY jump in Q2 retail EV sales, driven by strong U.S. demand and expanding global distribution. Read more
Elon Musk said Grok will roll out in Tesla vehicles next week at the latest, marking the AI assistant’s long-awaited expansion beyond X, shortly after the chatbot started praising mechaHitler. Read more
Bit Mining more than doubled after announcing a $300M Solana treasury strategy, aiming to deepen crypto exposure and diversify blockchain operations. Read more
TSMC posted a 40% revenue surge despite a 17% drop in June, fueled by ongoing demand for AI and advanced chip manufacturing. Read more
Bitcoin extended its breakout rally this week, buoyed by a reset in retail sentiment and renewed optimism across crypto markets. Read more
POPS & DROPS
Daddy War Bucks Becomes M&A Favorite
It is a banner year for mergers and acquisitions, the belle of the ball within the investment banking world. MP Materials is one of the latest winners, climbing $MP ( ▲ 50.62% ) an immense amount on Thursday.
Unlike other deals, the source of the $400M that grants its new majority shareholder voting rights over the firm’s rare earth mines might surprise you: Uncle Sam.
God bless America and the new $1T defense budget, because the Pentagon became the virtual key holder to Mountain Pass, California. The buy has to do with foreign dependence on refined metals, with 70% of imported refined goods originating from China, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
It was a point of contention during the most recent trade truce between the White House and Beijing. With purchases like this one, it looks like Uncle Sam wants less friction in its international dealings.
Chief James Litinsky told CNBC that the Pentagon investment is a public-private partnership that will help them build a rare earth magnet supply chain right here in the U.S. The deal calls for a factory expected to come online in 2028, able to output on a scale that vastly exceeds current U.S. magnet production, according to WSJ.
The Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine & Processing Facility, owned by MP Materials. (Photo by George Rose/Getty Images)
$UUUU ( ▲ 16.46% ) also climbed on the news, a uranium and rare earth firm based on CO. The deal comes after Italian candy maker Ferrero struck a $3B deal to buy WK Kellogg $KLG ( ▲ 30.63% ).
It was not all positive M&A news on Thursday:
Autodesk fell nearly 7% after reports surfaced it’s considering a potential acquisition of software peer PTC, sparking investor concerns over valuation and strategy.
PTC jumped 17% right as Bloomberg dropped the news Wednesday, then fell back Thursday, interestingly enough. JP Morgan analysts wrote in a note that Autodesk, the owner of professional modeling software AutoCAD, has completed 50 acquisitions since its founding. Oppenheimer said in a note that if the deal goes through, it will position Autodesk better in the AI space.
According to data provided by Finchat, 2025 has been a major year for buyouts.
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things
Economic data: IEA Monthly Report (4:00 AM), WASDE Report (12:00 PM), U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (1:00 PM), U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (1:00 PM), Federal Budget Balance (Jun) (2:00 PM).