CLOSING BELL
Soybeans Secured, Gentlemen
The market fell on Thursday, a hurting tech market pulled down by harsh reactions to Mag 7 spending, and a handshake trade truce that does not change much for now.
After a Korean summit, the Chinese will buy soybeans again, and possibly energy and unspecified chips, alongside a pause to rare earth rationing. In return, President Trump pledged to lower the fentanyl restricting tariffs. Thank god, we all know America’s soybean sellers secure the macroeconomic firmament.
Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 2.0% ) was falling after Trump said on Air Force 1 that he did not specifically talk Nvidia Blackwell chips with President Xi, more chip trade in general.
The market was red following $META ( ▼ 11.34% ), and the less important market cap-wise, but possibly more important, consumer sentiment stock $CMG ( ▼ 18.18% ) Chipotle. Chipotle said young people were facing major economic pressure, with high unemployment, and low- to middle-income guests were cutting back on dining. In the Rumor mill, OpenAI is planning on a $1T IPO in 2027, according to Reuters, and time will tell if their $20B/year revenue gets them that high of a valuation, or if the AI bubble bursts before then.
Today’s RIP: Amazon, Apple climb on massive revenue, China deal looks good, and more.
3 of 11 sectors closed green. Real estate $XLRE ( ▲ 0.57% ) lead and discretionary $XLY ( ▼ 2.26% ) lagged.
$SPY ( ▼ 1.1% ) $QQQ ( ▼ 1.53% ) $IWM ( ▼ 0.81% ) $DIA ( ▼ 0.29% )
AFTER THE BELL
Big Tech 1 And Big Tech 2 Climb On Big Tech Reports
Amazon was up $AMZN ( ▼ 3.23% ) after the bell, beating on net sales, earnings per share, and more with its record-setting report.
Net sales increased 13% to $180 billion, and AWS services grew 20% to $33 billion, surpassing estimates of 18% growth in the quarter. It’s the fastest growth in Amazon Web Services in three years according to Bloomberg data.
The big box retailer-turned-data center host is guiding for fourth-quarter net sales of $206.0-$213.0 billion. Unlike $EBAY ( ▼ 15.88% ) which was falling after a fine report but weak holiday season forecasts, Amazon expects 13% growth in its coming quarter compared to last year. CEO Andy Jassy said it’s all about the data center growth this year.
“AWS is growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022, re-accelerating to 20.2% YoY. We continue to see strong demand in AI and core infrastructure, and we’ve been focused on accelerating capacity – adding more than 3.8 gigawatts in the past 12 months."
Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.63% ) mostly beat estimates, but the stock fell after a slight miss in iPhone sales numbers, and a $2B miss in China sales compared with estimates. Though, honestly, the phone seller pulled in $103B in its Q4, and that’s insane for a non-holiday season.
Investors started to agree with that estimation, the stock swapped to a 4% climb, especially after a comment from the CFO to Financial Times that they expect a 10-12% revenue climb in their coming holiday quarter.
From last year, +10% would bring in a record $136B before the end of the calendar year. The stock initially fell on weak China sales, missing estimates: $14.49B vs $16.43B. The tale of the ticker tape this quarter for Apple has been the same as always: Apple grows by launching new products. This year it was four iPhone 17s, and the sales data painted a pretty picture for adoption, especially in China. Overall, though, iPhone revenue missed estimates by $300M, at $49B vs estimates for $49.33B
The two heavy hitters were not the only names reporting.
Reddit $RDDT ( ▼ 7.76% ) fell during Thursday trade, but climbed 9% after a volatile earnings release in the after market. The social media giant beat estimates with $585M rin revenue, showed a 19% gain in daily active users to 116M, and expects up to $665M in revenue for the next three months.
Coinbase $COIN ( ▼ 5.77% ) missed some estimates but was climbing 3% in the after-hours market, global sales climbed, and adjusted earnings were $1.44/share, above estimates. Revenue was up 55% to $1.87B.
Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 7.55% ) was climbingafter the company reported a $2.8B profit from selling bitcoin, surprising with earnings of $8.42/share after a couple of quarters of loss.
MACRO NEWS
US-China, Trump-Xi Trade Pact Almost Done, Past Deadline (See Me After Class)
U.S. President Donald Trump greets Chinese President Xi Jinping Oct. 30, in Busan, South Korea. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Setting the Stage
President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Busan, South Korea, in the wee hours of the morning on Thursday, where they outlined a new bilateral trade agreement. Bilateral in this usage means “the same set of conditions from earlier this year before our leaders were feuding.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the “Kuala Lumpur agreement” was finalized overnight and could be signed as early as next week. They agreed:
- Rare Earths & Strategic Minerals: China to Resume Exports of Rare Earths, Magnets, and Critical Minerals. Trump has prioritized this since January, citing China’s control of 70% of mining and 90% of processing capacity. Today he secured what amounts to a ‘no bully pls’ truce with China, where they won’t make it hard to get an export license for a while.
The rare earths truce is central to the deal, offering the U.S. a one-year window to diversify supply chains. Of course, past deals have unraveled quickly. Trump tried to approach the rare earth question in his first term, and again in the spring in a more aggressive way, but both plans collapsed within months, according to Axios. Today’s news is similar; there were no guarantees that a fed misplaced tweets won’t reverse this handshake next week.
- Agricultural Commitments: China will purchase 12M tons of U.S. soybeans this harvest season (through January), and commit to 25M tons annually for the next three years. While slightly below 2024’s 27M tons, Bessent expects actual volumes to exceed commitments.
- Energy & Fentanyl Controls: The deal includes cooperation on energy products and efforts to control fentanyl flows.
Trump gave comments on Air Force One that the U.S. will start exporting energy and chips in return for the deal, but no specifics yet. We will have ot wait for a signed deal, and further news on other issues like the TikTok deal, but for now, it’s a start.
ANALYST TAKES
Why Ed Yardeni Thinks More Rate Cuts = More Problems
Economist Ed Yardeni warned that further rate cuts could trigger financial instability after this most recent cut from the FOMC on Wednesday. He echoed Chair Powell’s warnings that a cut in December sounds great, but might not be what the committee thinks is best.
Yardeni believes the labor market’s issues are structural — linked to immigration, AI, and policy — but not solvable by the standard monetary policy lever. If the Fed can’t change labor, then moving rates to attempt it would only work to raise prices.
“Things like deportation, stricter immigration, AI, all these issues are structural in nature.” Yardeni wrote. “If the Fed keeps lowering interest rates, then I think they will be feeding animal spirits… they will increase the chances of financial instability.”
Yardeni’s comments followed the Fed’s 25bps cut to a 3.75–4% range, which he described as a “hawkish” move given Powell’s reluctance to commit to a December cut. Yardeni noted that corporate earnings have been “really surprisingly good” through Q3 2025, suggesting the economy doesn’t need more stimulus.
He added that investors are hoping for a Santa Claus rally, and “they might very well get it.”
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocks News Stories
- OpenAI Codex saw strongest growth since September, says Altman.
- Meta fell 10% after announcing $25B bond sale for AI investments.
- Moderna rose 14% on reports of potential drugmaker deal talks.
- Tesla recalled Cybertrucks again over faulty light bar.
- Roblox fell 14% as CEO defended margin drop tied to AI spending.
- Cleveland-Cliffs fell 12% after announcing fund-raising plans.
- Nvidia declined after Trump skipped Blackwell chip talks with Xi.
- AT&T sued ad watchdog over alleged suppression of truthful speech.
- US energy exports may rise as Energy Secretary signals readiness to expand China shipments.
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things
Economic data: PCE Price Index (8:30 AM), Chicago PMI (9:45 AM), Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 (11:30 AM), FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (12:00 PM)
Pre-Market Earnings: Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Chevron ($CVX), AbbVie ($ABBV), Butterfly Network ($BFLY), and Dominion Energy ($D).