CLOSING BELL
Buffett Was A Fortunate Son
The market was falling Tuesday, but turned around late in the day, despite news the shutdown may be over as the Senate sent a bill to the House for approval.
The market was holding its breath, watching to see if the House would approve the measure and start the process of restarting Uncle Sam. The Dow climbed, but tech investors were more worried to see if AI datacenter earnings would prove high high-capex is worth it.Michael Burry’s bear call has more news to come in two weeks about his bet chip buyers are understating wear and tear, but it was SoftBank’s stake sale of $5.8B in $NVDA ( ▼ 2.96% ) that really took the wind out of AI sales. SoftBank sold to buy $22.5B in OpenAI, but still.
Not all AI news was bad — $AMD ( ▼ 2.65% ) Chief Lisa Su said they were going to see a greater share of AI chip market over the next three/five years, and 35% revenue growth every year for five years. Her speech at the AMD investor day on Tuesday wasn’t enough to raise the stock’s price for long.
As for the shutdown, it might not pass in the House, Senate Dems sending a deal that does not offer healthcare subsidy protections House Dems wanted. Still, with 40 million out of SNAP food benefits, a major cutback in flights from the FAA, and millions of Fed employees without pay, it's starting to look ugly out there.
Today’s RIP: Softbank Sells Nvidia, Buffets Last words, Oklo falls without revenue, and more.
10 of 11 sectors closed green. Healtch Care $XLV ( ▲ 2.31% ) lead and tech $XLK ( ▼ 0.85% ) lagged.
AFTER THE BELL
$15B Company Still Not Making Money
Building design firm Genesler’s rendition of the Oklo Aurora plant
Oklo Inc. $OKLO ( ▼ 6.55% ) fell after the company reported no earnings, it is researching how to build nuclear reactors, a $15B dollar company that lost $29.7M in the quarter, about 20C a share.
Street estimates expected 13C/share loss. The company said it is till waiting for regulators to approve its plans for power plants. Costs rose due to $9M of stock compensation handed out by the firm, and $15B of R&D costs.
In July it passed a pre-pre-check with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and got an Energy Department Grant for ‘fast-tracked’ nuclear reactor licenses in August. The company wants to build an Idaho-based sodium-cooled ‘fast’ reactor called Aurora-INL, targeting to hit the on switch in 2027.
MORE STOCK NEWS
After The Bell Cont.
Beyond Meat $BYND ( ▼ 8.96% ) was down slightly after the bell, a one-time meme stock that flew while the Stocktwits team was meeting community members in San Diego.
Beyond fell nearly 9% after it reported a drop in revenue of 13% in its most recent quarter, expecting revenue between $60-$56M this quarter, below estimates. Volume in not meat sales fell 10% this past quarter, and each pound of not meat made 3.5% less in revenue.
$LTBR ( ▼ 2.21% ) LightBridge was up Tuesday after the bell, beating quarter estimates with $15.05M in revneue for the Stocktwtis favorite optical, infrered company. They reported a higher loss in Q1-Q3 at $12.4M, compared to the same period last year.
CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 16.31% ) fell Tuesday, trending lower on Stocktwits after the Nvidia-backed data company cut guidance, despite a smaller loss per share than the Street feared The firm cut its full-year revenue guidance to the range of $5.05 billion to $5.15 billion, down from $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion.
JPMorgan downgraded the stock to ‘Neutral.’ Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $99 citedGPU demand and CoreWeave’s rapid scaling,but joined in JPM in warning of possible supply chain delays from a third-party data center providers.
Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▲ 9.77% )was up 10%, leading the S&P 500 after its sales guidance for the coming three months beat estimates on Monday night, at $8.10-$8.30 billion, despite an unexpected loss after Paramount and Skydance merged in August for $1.3 billion.
Why The Tech Market Fell Tuesday
Nvidia was pulling down the tech market Tuesday, on SoftBanks $SFTBY ( ▲ 3.59% )major stake sell-off. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is selling investment positions to pay for Stargate data centers and OpenAI investments, according to Yahoo Finance.
The conglomerate said during its earnings call Tuesday that through its ‘Vision Fund 2,’ is spending full $22.5 billion with OpenAI, and plans to acquire US chip designer Ampere Computing LLC for $6.5 billion and ABB Ltd.’s robotics arm for $5.4 billion.
The company sold its last stake in Nvidia for a loss in 2019, for $3.6B. That stake would be worth $150B if they just held on.
Japanese companies said it pulled in a net income of ¥2.5 trillion ($16.2 billion) in its Q2, nearly four times the estimates calling for ¥418.2 billion.
MACRO
Me When I Pay Off My 50-Year Home Loan In 2120
Imagine nearly identifal houses, just one’s twice the cost.
Over the weekend, the President posted about the possibility of a 50-year mortgage to address how hard it is to buy a house nowadays. The idea comes form the New Deal FDR 30-year loan, a standardized mortgage that helped get generations of hardworking Americans into homes.
The problem is, everyone said at once, it would lower monthly payments on the loan, but all things the same, dramatically increase the price of paying back the loan.
Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com told FoxBusiness that 50 years of paying interest basically doubles the cost of paying back a loan compared to a 30-year.
"The drawbacks are that a 50-year mortgage results in almost double the interest payments of a 30-year mortgage and a longer path to meaningful home equity, and that the result of subsidizing home demand without increasing home supply could be an increase to home prices that negates the potential savings," Berner said.
Take a 6.25% rate on a ~$360k house using both a 50-year mortgage and a 30-year mortgage. The 50-year loan’s interest alone would cost ~$817,000 compared to a 30-year loan's interest of ~$438,000.
That’s also imagining a longer loan duration would NOT have a higher interest rate, which tends to be the case. In other words, 50-year buyers would be buying the same house at more than twice the cost. It would also take twice as long to build up milestones like $100K in equity. Any buyers?
REPORTS
Warren Buffet Tells The Tale Of The Fortunate One
Monday, the king of long-term investing cool, Warren Buffett penned a final shareholder letter of goodbye at the ripe age of 95.
“To My Fellow Shareholders: I will no longer be writing Berkshire’s annual report or talking endlessly at the annual meeting. As the British would say, I’m “going quiet.” Sort of. Greg Abel will become the boss at year's end. He is a great manager, a tireless worker and an honest communicator. Wish him an extended tenure.”
The note punctuates the succession plan for Vice Chair Greg Abel that was approved by shareholders back in May. Buffet said he would be speeding up his share contributions to the four foundations, but told investors it was not because he thought things were going to go downhill.
He waxed poetically about American life and how it changed since his earliest memories growing up in Omaha, then later Washington D.C., a Congressman’s Son. In his own words, the man was lucky as a skunk for his long life and success.
“Choose your heroes very carefully and then emulate them. You will never be perfect, but you can always be better.” He said in closing.
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocks News Stories
Outset Medical fell 48% after disappointing update.
BYD targets strong double-digit overseas sales growth in 2026.
Google committed $6.4B to expand AI cloud infrastructure in Germany.
CoreWeave fell 15% amid Wall Street skepticism after Q3 results.
SoFi became first U.S. bank to enable retail crypto trading.
ENGN soared 50% on positive bladder cancer study results.
NBIS climbed 5% after $3B Meta AI infrastructure deal.
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things
Economic data: OPEC Monthly Report (5:00 AM), FOMC Member Williams Speaks (9:20 AM), Fed Waller Speaks (10:20 AM), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12:00 PM), FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (12:15 PM), 10-Year Note Auction (1:00 PM), API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (4:30 PM).
Pre-Market Earnings: Nuwellis ($NUWE), Cormedix ($CRMD), and Circle Internet Group ($CRCL).
After-Market Earnings: Cisco Systems ($CSCO), Rumble ($RUM), IZEA Worldwide ($IZEA), and Serve Robotics ($SERV).