CLOSING BELL
Can You Hear The Pop
The market pulled back Tuesday with some AI bubble fury, in part after fresh bearish doomspeak from hedge fund manager Michael Burry.
Though you can’t blame it all on Burry: other Wall Street CEOs are warning caution too. Ted Pick of Morgan Stanley Chief fame said systemic risk is low, but we should all be prepared for a 10-15% drawdown. James Solomon, Chief at Goldman Sachs, said tech multiples are “full,” but 10-15% pullbacks during bull runs are healthy.
The U.S. government shutdown is tied for the record, and some are worried it will continue until Thanksgiving, with no end in sight.
Bitcoin fell below $100k for the first time since the summer, while tech on the Nasdaq 100 fell 2%. Tesla fell as Norges Bank, a 1.14% stakeholder, said it would not approve Chief Musk’s proposed $1T stock pay package, which he and his board allies argue is to incentivize him to build a “robot army.”
Uber and Palantir fell despite earnings beats, with Wall Street wanting more. After the bell, AMD also beat, but it was down at the time of writing. Maybe it’s just the early SAD effects of Daylight Saving Time darkness.
In Today’s Rip: Burry shorts big again, After the bell AMD, SMCI, SPOT, and Pinterest, Denny’s, and Previews for Tomorrow.
4 of 11 sectors closed green, with Financials $XLF ( ▲ 0.52% ) leading and tech $XLK ( ▼ 2.64% ) lagging.
$SPY ( ▼ 1.19% ) $QQQ ( ▼ 2.03% ) $IWM ( ▼ 1.73% ) $DIA ( ▼ 0.54% )
AFTER THE BELL
AMD, Super Micro, Pintererst: What’s Driving The After Market Sell Off?
AMD $AMD ( ▼ 3.7% ) beat estimates Tuesday, reporting adjusted earnings and revenue above estimates, but after a long red day for tech, no one seemed to care.
The chipmaker made headlines this quarter with a stake investing deal with OpenAI, and a major chip sale to Oracle. Revenue for Q3 was $9.25B vs Street expectations for $8.7 billion. Gross margin climbed to 52% but operating margin was 24%, barely in line with estimates. CapEx came in hot, $258M compared to estimates for $220M, mostly spent on R&D.
Another source of investor pause was international shipments. Despite a handshake truce between Trump and Xi, U.S. semiconductor firms are still not seeing any uptick of orders, and AMD’s results had no mention of revenue from GPU shipments to China. Well, they mentioned GPU shipments to China, in that their results did not include any revenue from that topical trade.
AMD was not at a loss for tech peers falling in the aftermarket.
Marathon $MARA ( ▼ 6.68% ) was down, with an EPS miss but a revenue beat with a 92% climb from last year. Bitcoin was bleeding out below $100k at the time of release, so not much else mattered for the bitcoin miner that is (like many miners) trying to pitch itself as a data center provider.
$SMCI ( ▼ 6.6% ) Super Micro Computer was down 6%, the datacenter shelf maker showing off still unaudited results, with about $800M less in revenue than Wall Street wanted to see. Still, the second fiscal quarter outlook for revenue of $10B-$11B, much higher than the estimates for $8B.
Pinterest $PINS ( ▼ 2.34% ) was falling 15% after the mood board company showed Q3 revenue that came in right as expected, a miss in earnings 38C vs est 42C expected, and a lower than hoped forward guidance of $1.3B- 1.34B in the coming quarter.
Compared to the internet advertising giants that posted reports last week, throwing around quarters of a total $100B+ in ad revenue, Pinterest’s $1.05B doesn’t hold up. Amazon’s ad unit grew 24% to $17.7B, Alphabet pulled in $74.18B up 13% from last year, and Reddit ads grew 68% to $585M.
- Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 6.99% ) is expected to report Q3 2025 earnings of $0.51–$0.61 per share on revenue of approximately $1.19–$1.22 billion.
- ARM Holdings $ARM ( ▼ 4.71% ) is expected to report Q2 FY2026 earnings of $0.26 per share
- Qualcomm $QCOM ( ▼ 4.36% ) is expected to report Q4 FY2025 earnings of $2.85 per share on revenue of approximately $10.7 billion.
BUBBLE NEWS
Palantir Leads The Market Lower After Bearish Bets Cloud Bull Run
Palantir was falling Tuesday, and after yet another beat and raise Monday night, there had to be a good reason. Turns out if you’re the most expensive stock trading on the S&P 500 based on forward multiples of earnings, it doesn’t take much to set off a selling spree.
$PLTR ( ▼ 7.94% ) was down after Big Short hedge fund manager Michael Burry said he bought long puts on Palantir and Nvidia. Filings don't show shorter options if the strategy is a part of a spread. Burry was waxing about market bubbles just a couple days ago, posting a screenshot of Christian Bale playing him in the movie ‘The Big Short.” Cringe.
Burry’s firm showed in a 13F filing puts on Palantir and Nvidia, alongside calls on Pfizer and Halliburton. Speaking of $HAL ( ▼ 1.36% ), VP Dick CHanely passed away today, RIP.
Filing of his firm Scion Asset Management, according to 13f.info
Anyway, the long-dated Puts show the ‘nominal value’ of the shares the options contracts control, not what Burry and gang paid. The $912M for PLTR and $186M for Nvidia puts dated September 30th likely cost a whole lot less, and are a part of an unknown strategy — 13f filings don’t require short-term options.
Burry rose to fame by betting on the mortgage crisis in the 2000s and was right, but has since made a name for himself by calling the end times a little more often than they actually occur.
In Jan 2023, he tweeted "sell," and the markets have been up 78% since then.
Lol
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocks News Stories
- Intuitive Machines fell 10%, $800M acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems.
- Yum Brands rose 7% after announcing a strategic review of Pizza Hut.
- New Energy rose 20% after announcing a major EV battery partnership.
- Spotify fell 3% despite announcing layoffs and cost-cutting measures.
- Apollo Global rose 5% after strong Q3 results and a $6.5B wind investment.
- DraftKings fell 6% after JPM downgrade from valuation concerns.
- Ichor Holdings fell 30% after weak guidance and analyst downgrades.
DEALS
Denny’s Offers New Deal On The Menu: The Entire Company
(Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Denny's was climbing $DENN ( ▲ 50.37% )Tuesday after reaching an agreement for a $620M all-cash buyout from TriArtisan Capital Advisors, Treville Capital Group, and Yadav Enterprises. The deal values the company at about $6.25/share, which is why the stock jumped.
The stock has fallen 30%+ this year, facing heavy competition in the restaurant chain world from a weakening consumer base. The news followed Monday’s deal from Starbucks $SBUX ( ▼ 1.68% ) selling a majority stake of its China business to a private equity firm for $4B, and a $YUM ( ▲ 7.3% ) Brand rumor to sell Pizza Hut. Despite $5.6B in domestic sales across 6,560 stores, Pizza Hut reported its eighth quarter of same-store sales declines. Dominoes $DPZ ( ▲ 0.81% ) meanwhile, is showing a 6% climb in sales.
Yadav Enterprises is the owner-operator of approximately 550 restaurants nationwide, including a ton of Denny’s. TriArtisan and Yadav approached Denny’s with an interest in a buyout, and the board presented the idea to 40 different participants before sealing the deal, according to MarketWatch.
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things
Economic data: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (9:15 AM), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM), ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (10:00 AM), S&P Global Composite PMI (10:45 AM), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (11:00 AM)
Pre-Market Earnings: Aurora Cannabis ($ACB), McDonald’s ($MCD), Unity Software ($U), and Lemonade ($LMND).
After-Market Earnings: AMC Enter ($AMC), Snap ($SNAP), Lucid Gr ($LCID), Robinhood Markets ($HOOD), Qualcomm ($QCOM), IonQ ($IONQ), Lyft ($LYFT), Fastly ($FSLY), ARM Holdings ($ARM), Joby Aviation ($JOBY), and Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA).
Make your vote!
- Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 6.99% ) is expected to report Q3 2025 earnings of $0.51–$0.61 per share on revenue of approximately $1.19–$1.22 billion.
- ARM Holdings $ARM ( ▼ 4.71% ) is expected to report Q2 FY2026 earnings of $0.26 per share
- Qualcomm $QCOM ( ▼ 4.36% ) is expected to report Q4 FY2025 earnings of $2.85 per share on revenue of approximately $10.7 billion.