CLOSING BELL
No Place Like HODL
Well, now that trading is closed, it is safe to say the market was green Friday, pulling out of a nose-dive post Nvidia earnings that saw choppy trade all morning.
Every single sector closed in the green, after a market reaction to an earnings beat that made us all look like fools for believing AI stocks could climb forever. It feels like the Trump team leaked rumors they were ‘considering letting Nvidia sell H200 chips to China’ just to restart the AI stock boost. Nvidia has said that could be a $50B move.
The Fed did its best to be confusing: two FOMC voters said they wanted to hold rates, while Williams from NYC called for a cut in three weeks, throwing future bets in the air.
Bitcoin is still tanking, bringing the usual host of failing stocks, business rumors and blow-ups. It’s the worst month since 2022, if the month ended today. 👀
Today’s RIP: Nvidia might sell its best chips to China, Saylor Doesn’t need Indexes, Mamdami and Trump are friends, and more.
11 sectors closed green. Materials $XLB ( ▲ 2.24% ) lead and Utilities $XLU ( ▲ 0.15% )lagged.
REBOUND
Trump team weighs Nvidia chip sales to China
The Trump administration is debating whether to allow Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chips to be sold to China, a move that would mark a significant shift in U.S. export policy, according to Bloomberg.
The H200 is Nvidia’s most advanced GPU yet, offering faster memory bandwidth and higher efficiency than the H20 chips currently permitted for export. The Trump admin agreed to let Nvidia export h20’s in the spring, for a 15% fee. So far, Nvidia has not recorded revenue selling to China under these rules; Chief Jensen Huang must not want to pay the taxes.
But the news that even the highest-end chips may be up for sale is great for Nvidia. In the broader AI hardware race, Google’s TPUs and Amazon’s Trainium chips are competing head‑to‑head with Nvidia’s GPUs for dominance in training large language models, according to CNBC.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was recently seen at the White House during a visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The administration has already approved shipments of up to 70,000 next‑generation Blackwell chips to partners in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, highlighting its willingness to selectively loosen export rules, Bloomberg reported.
It’s just a rumor, but it helped Friday turn green, and if greenlit, it would represent a major concession to Beijing and a reversal of prior U.S. policy, likely sparking fierce debate in Washington. Just what we need.
CRYPTO STOCKS
Crypto Washout Whipeout
Bitcoin kept falling this week, and nothing stopped it. Fear gauges spiked as forced liquidations dominated the tape, erasing over $2B in positions, and $400B from the total crypto market, according to Axios.
Speaking to traders, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin may be nearing a bottom, framing the washout as a liquidity purge. “Capitulations often reset positioning for the next leg,” Hayes argued, while warning that “AI stocks still need to crater” before risk appetite can fully return.
A big piece of the bleed out came from publicly traded Digital Asset Treasury companies, especially after a leak from financial service company MSCI said the indexer could kick crypto‑linked firms out of its indexes. Strategy is the top DAT, and Morgan Stanley jumped on the bandwagon and warned $MSTR ( ▼ 3.74% )’s shrinking premium and balance sheet risks from the collapse of Bitcoin prices could easily see it struck form the MSCI USA Index.
JPMorgan said that could cause other indexes to take Strategy down, leading to a possible $3-$10B market cap loss as passive investors pull out of the stock. Of course, Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of Strategy, said in a twitter post that he was not worried, that “Index classification doesn’t define us.” We’ll see.
Economist Peter Schiff said on Thursday that Strategy’s total spend on Bitcoin, at $48 billion or so, shows a total profit of just 17%.
“Had Saylor bought just about any other asset, MSTR would have been better off. Plus, if Saylor ever tries to realize this gain, it will vanish,” he said.
Hayes positioned crypto as potentially stabilizing sooner than equities, while skeptics countered that ETF flows and index inclusion risks remain critical hurdles. “The better the purge, the stronger the rebound,” Hayes suggested, highlighting the cyclical nature of crypto markets.
EARNINGS NEWS
Earnings Split Highlights: Resilience or Burn
Friday’s earnings reinforced a familiar divide: value retail steady, capital‑intensive growth demanding patience and proof. Broader retail earnings this week, including $HD ( ▲ 3.29% ) and $WMT ( ▼ 1.67% ) showed consumers leaning into value and essentials, while discretionary categories lagged.
BJ’s Wholesale Club $BJ ( ▲ 1.13% ) :Reported EPS of $1.16 vs. $1.10 expected, with revenue at $5.35B. Comparable sales ex‑gas rose 1.8%, while membership fee income jumped nearly 10%. Digital comps also grew, underscoring the staples‑heavy resilience theme heading into holiday shopping.
VinFast $VFS ( ▼ 6.78% ) : Delivered revenue growth of 47% YoY to ~$719M, with EV deliveries up 74%. Gross margin remained deeply negative at ‑56%, and net loss widened to ~$953M. The update kept attention on cash burn, funding runway, and global expansion ambitions.
Frontline $FRO ( ▲ 3.64% ) : Posted net income of ~$40M, supported by strong tanker rates. Declared a $0.19 dividend, with Q4 bookings showing higher utilization across VLCC and LR2 fleets. Liquidity and modern fleet positioning remain central to its winter outlook.
Pyxis Tankers $PXS ( ▲ 8.78% ) :Authorized a $3M buyback program, citing discount to NAV. Operational progress tied to refined petroleum and agricultural product transport kept investor focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns.
Manchester United $MANU ( ▲ 0.72% ) :Revenue rose on matchday and commercial streams, with sponsorship and media rights offsetting higher wage costs. Strategic developments beyond the pitch—commercialization and global fan engagement—remained in the spotlight.
MACRO NEWS
Trump And Mamdani Sitting In A Tree, K-I-S-S-I-N-G
Nvidia’s rumored windfall wasn’t the only catalyst behind Friday’s rally. Markets turned positive on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut scheduled for December 10th, after a series of mixed signals from policymakers.
New York Fed President John Williams suggested a cut could come in the near term, reinforcing investor bets that monetary easing is imminent. His comments contrasted with Boston Fed’s Susan Collins and Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan, who both urged patience Friday, warning that inflation risks remain.
Behind the numbers: Odds for a December cut surged to 70% Friday morning, up sharply from 30% just a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch. Futures markets repriced aggressively, with traders rotating into rate‑sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities.
The divergence among Fed officials highlights the tension between stabilizing growth and containing inflation. Williams’ dovish tone gave investors confidence that the central bank may prioritize economic momentum heading into year‑end, while hawks remain cautious about loosening policy too quickly.
Oh, and speaking of the Commander in Chief, he met NYC mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, welcomed like some champion from Trump’s homeland to a far-off swamp fortress in D.C. It was surreal to see them playing nicely.
After months of throwing the words fascist and commie around, it looked like any other White House visit: the two got along for the cameras and talked about affordability behind closed doors. Aren’t we all.
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocks News Stories
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Bitcoin market cap loss surpasses GDP of five countries.
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Bitcoin ETFs see record outflows, leaving average investors in the red.
Dan Ives warns Nvidia’s AI boom may mirror past hype cycles.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest keeps buying Nvidia on dip opportunity.
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