CLOSING BELL
Thank God For Friday
It was a red day for most of Friday's trade, the S&P 500 dipping below the 50-day moving average briefly before ‘buy the dippers’ jumped in. Prices climbed from there, ending just slightly higher, squeezing in at the end of the day with some green.
It was a pullback week in general. It was consumer sentiment that media minds blamed today, Michigan numbers showing the most pessimistic outlook on the economy since 2022, the advent of insane Covid inflation.
The shutdown hit a record length this week, but the market rebounded after Senate Democrats offered a one-year deal to extend some health care benefits to end the shutdown. The Republicans rejected the deal late Friday, but at least lawmakers were finally doing something, investors hoped. The FAA started to cut back on flights due to funding costs, the Sec of Transportation threatening a 20% cutback if the shutdown continues.
Tech stocks this week pulled back on cautious reactions to meteoric AI spending, and eyed earnings beats with skepticism. It was the worst week for the Nasdaq since April.
Today’s RIP: What are we bailing out? Plus: Earnings reactions and previews.
9 of 11 sectors closed green, with staples $XLP ( ▲ 1.47% ) leading and tech $XLK ( ▼ 0.35% ) lagging.
$SPY ( ▲ 0.1% ) $QQQ ( ▼ 0.32% ) $IWM ( ▲ 0.52% ) $DIA ( ▲ 0.12% )
STOCKS
Friday Movers & Misses: Opendoor Sinks, Expedia Soars, Tesla Trades Lower
Opendoor $OPEN ( 0.0% ) fell for most of the trading day, but climbed toward the close for an inspiring 0.0 change Friday.
The meme stock was hurt by a Thursday night earnings report that left little to the imagination: a 34% drop in Q3 sales and a $33M EBITDA loss, despite beating revenue estimates. New CEO Kaz Nejatian cited heavy consulting spend and a pivot toward AI, but warned of declining Q4 revenue, leaving meme holders unimpressed.
Still, retail was excited about something, and maybe Nejatian’s mantra held true.
"We are refounding Opendoor as a software and AI company. In my first month as CEO, we've made a decisive break from the past — returning to the office, eliminating reliance on consultants, and launching over a dozen AI-powered products and features that demonstrate our renewed velocity," he said on the earnings call.
Expedia $EXPE ( ▲ 17.55% ) surged midday after beating on both EPS and revenue, while Sunrun $RUN ( ▼ 16.11% ) dropped despite topping revenue estimates, as EPS missed and guidance disappointed.
Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 3.68% ) slipped after shareholders approved Elon Musk’s $1T pay package, contingent on hitting an $8T market cap and deploying robo fleets. $XYZ ( ▼ 7.73% ) sank on weak crypto sales, $TTWO ( ▼ 8.08% ) declined after another GTA 6 delay, surprising no one at all.
EARNINGS PREVIEWS
Week of Nov. 10
Our Community team highlighted four retail favorite stocks reporting next week, most on Monday. Which is your most-watched, or are you looking for a name not shown here? Drop me a line vvv
AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▲ 5.99% )
Analysts expect strong YoY growth driven by satellite deployment and STC Group prepayment. Options markets imply a ~19% move post-earnings.
- EPS Estimate: –$0.18 to –$0.23. Revenue Estimate: $20.7M to $22.0M
Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▲ 4.09% )
Investors are watching Neutron rocket updates and Space Systems’ growth. Zacks ESP suggests a potential beat.
- EPS Estimate: –$0.05 to –$0.10. Revenue Estimate: $149M to $151.8M
BigBear.ai $BBAI ( ▲ 0.35% )
Shares up nearly 190% YoY, but recent quarters missed. Focus on AI services and federal contract traction.
• EPS Estimate: –$0.06 to –$0.07. Revenue Estimate: Q2 was $32.5M vs. $41.2M expected; Q3 not yet disclosed
Nebius Group $NBIS ( ▲ 1.68% )
This one’s reporting on Tuesday. Focus on GPU deployment at the Vineland site and progress toward $17.4B Microsoft capacity deal.ASTS
- EPS Estimate: –$0.38 to –$0.50. Revenue Estimate: Q2 actual was $105.1M; Q3 not yet disclosed
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MACRO NEWS
Why Is Everyone Talking About An AI Bailout??
It’s easy to take a step back and look at headlines this week to see why the market is again showing red in the first week of a new month: people are talking about an AI bailout, and we haven’t even had an AI crash yet.
Comments from OpenAI CFO Sarah Fiar at a convention center this week sent the industry on edge. She suggested that Uncle Sam should “backstop the guarantee that allows the financing to happen.” What is she talking about?
It makes more sense when you look at the scale of what OpenAI is trying to do. OpenAI is spending so much money it is basically a pre-revenue startup aiming for $1.4T in datacenter infrastructure to host an AI brain so big it might… one day actually turn a profit. If the air comes out of the tires before the unclear future date comes, where OpenAI makes money, and by extension every other Mag 7 building buying or selling datacenter AI tech turns a profit, it’s going to be a lot of too big to fails all at once.
Fiar later wrote on LinkedIn that she basically flubbed, and was just saying we need to hold hands and help each other. “I was making the point that American strength in technology will come from building real industrial capacity, which requires the private sector and government playing their part,” she posted.
Sounds great. The problem is, Americans feel pessimistic, overworked, and underpaid right now, and AI data centers are spreading across the country, driving electricity prices up to 260%+ higher wherever they go, according to a Bloomberg study.
Politicians love to champion tech deals, but when those companies end up paying each other, it only looks like musical chairs. No one wants to be caught without a chair when the music stops, including Uncle Sam. Especially when Uncle Sam can’t even pay for food stamps.
The White House made a statement Thursday that “The U.S. has at least 5 major frontier model companies. If one fails, others will take its place,” David Sacks, Admin AI Czar, said.
Big if true, but too big to fail looks bad when normal people feel like AI is hogging all the energy in the room, literally.
-Kevin Travers
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocks News Stories
- Meta unveils $600B AI data center investment plan.
- Affirm rose 12% as CEO flagged spending shift tied to shutdown.
- MP Materials rose 14% as CEO flagged rare earth supply chain risks.
- White House warns shutdown impact exceeds initial estimates.
- Navitas Semiconductor fell 9% after weak guidance and margins.
- DraftKings rose 8% after CEO praise for prediction markets.
- Monster Beverage gained after Q3 beat and Celsius stumble.
- Peloton rose 13% on upbeat holiday quarter guidance.
- Archer Aviation fell 7% after announcing $650M airport deal.