CLOSING BELL
It Wants Its Jobs Back
The overall market continued to fall on Tuesday, but select tech names helped the Nasdaq climb. Investors watched as the worst unemployment rate peeked its ugly head in the delayed jobs data. November’s labor market saw 64,000 job additions, well above October’s 105,000 job losses that the BLS also released Tuesday, but the most recent unemployment rate of 4.6% was the highest since May of 2021.
“The U.S. Economy is in a hiring recession,” Heather Long, Navy Federal Credit Union, said. She pointed out 710,000 more people are unemployed compared ot a year ago.
Broken down by demographic, some segments were even worse; 10%+ of 16-24 year olds were unemployed in November. The bad data comes before inflation data later this week, but is used as a tell for traders to bet on more rate cuts coming next year.
It wasn’t all bad news. Tesla climbed to a fresh all-time high past $489, after someone filmed a Model Y driving on the Austin Highway, with no one in the car.
In non-invading Venezuela White House news, Fed Chair interviews are underway, as the two Kevins are joined by Current Fed Gov Waller, who is set to appear in an interview with Trump on Wednesday.
AFTER THE BELL
Times Are Tough For Homebuilders Too
Lennar $LEN ( ▼ 1.8% ) fell after its post-market report, down 4% at the time of writing. It’s a nationwide home builder that reported a challenging quarter for building domiciles in the U.S., painting a picture of weak consumer confidence and a government shutdown that hurt everyone’s feelings.
"Even as market conditions softened, we prioritized providing supply for a healthier housing market, while driving down costs to support affordability," Co-CEO Stuart Miller said. "We have focused on adapting to a new normal as the market finds its footing.”
Earnings Miss: The adjusted earnings per share of $2.03 fell short of the $2.21 consensus. But worse than that was a contraction in margins.
Contracting Margins: The gross margin on home sales fell significantly, contracting to 17.0% from 22.1% in the year-ago quarter. This indicates the company is using deeper incentives and absorbing higher costs to maintain the sales volume, which cuts directly into profit.
Falling Prices: The average sales price declined 10% year-over-year to $386,000, reflecting the use of incentives and the need to increase housing supply to combat affordability challenges, as noted by Executive Chairman Stuart Miller.
Lennar's guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 underscored the profit pressure:
Q1 2026 Deliveries: Expected between 17,000 and 18,000 homes.
Lower Average Price: The projected average sales price is expected to fall further to $365,000 to $375,000 (down from $386,000 in Q4).
Worse Margins: The company anticipates Q1 gross margins to drop again to 15% to 16%, signaling that the high cost of incentives and lower prices will continue to squeeze profitability into the new year.
INDUSTRY NEWS
Tesla Self-Drives To All-Time High: Robotaxi Optimism & €1B European Battery Push
Tesla shares $TSLA ( ▲ 3.07% ) hit a record high on Tuesday, driven by intense optimism surrounding its autonomous driving strategy, especially after confirming significant plans to ramp up battery production.
Robotaxi Catalyst: CEO Elon Musk confirmed over the weekend that the company has begun testing fully autonomous robotaxis with no occupants in the front seat in Austin. Tesla reporter and fan Sawyer Merritt reposted a self-driving Tesla with no one in the cabin on the roads of Austin, a horrifying vision seen even four years ago.
Analysts at Wedbush believe this pivot could push the company’s market capitalization to $3 trillion by the end of 2026 in a bull case scenario. Dan Ives went on the pump Tesla shares campaign again Monday, telling reporters across media sites that his favorite car company is set to take advantage of the AI fad boom.
Tesla also announced plans to start producing 8 gigawatt hours of battery cells annually at its Gruenheide Gigafactory near Berlin by 2027, Stocks reported.
Market Action: Tesla stock closed 3% higher after hitting an all-time high of $489.88, leading retail sentiment on Stocktwits to jump to "extremely bullish."
DEAL NEWS
WBD Said, ‘That’s All Folks’ To PSKY Daddy Deal
Warner Bros Discovery $WBD ( ▼ 2.73% ) is planning to reject Paramount $PSKY ( ▼ 1.0% ) Skydance’s hostile and giant bag of money-sized bid to buy out the firm, according to Bloomberg reporting late Tuesday. The news sent shares of PSKY slightly lower in the post-market. News also dropped that Jared Kushner, Trump's law and man who makes deals with everyone,is dropping out of the hostile takeover attempt.
The board took a second to think about the offer and plans to recommend that shareholders say no to the giant bag of money, earmarked by Oracle tech heir and Middle Eastern Oil money. Kushenr’s VC involvement was seen as a plus for ParaSky, with the idea being he could suck up to Ivanka Trump’s daddy to help squeeze the deal past regulators. But his firm said, screw it, it’s Christmas, we’ve all got our hands full with family stuff, why go through all that work?
"With two strong competitors vying to secure the future of this unique American asset, Affinity has decided no longer to pursue the opportunity," Kushner's private-equity firm, Affinity Partners, said.
This could be a 4D chess move, but it’s more likely to mean a Netflix mate in 3. WBD stakeholders were also concerned about Paramount’s other deal backers, the Ellisons. Paramount boss David Ellison would have used a revocable trust from his dad’s Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 2.02% ) tech fortune, and Bloomberg reported the WBD board didn’t want to be anywhere near the term ‘revocable.’
Paramount also took back a $1B financing share it had pledged to Tencent, fearing regulators would draw the line at Chinese tech giant ownership of Bugs Bunny.
Even Trump himself criticised Paramount Tuesday, saying he was treated badly despite CBS’s recent takeover by the more right-leaning Ellison faction. Finally, remember that WBD already agreed to sell out to Netflix for $27.75/share, or upwards of $83B, so of course it’s telling shareholders to ‘ignore the other date proposals to the Christmas ball.’
POPS & DROPS
Top Stocktwits News Stories
AMC Robotics is generating retail discussion following its AlphaVest merger.
Iris Energy stock is down 50% from Nov highs.
Dragonfly Energy shares plunged 38% today due to undisclosed reasons in the summary.
Tilray stock is climbing again on Trump cannabis order buzz.
Michael Burry claims he didn't know "Roaring Kitty" existed before GameStop squeeze.
STOCKS VIDEO
The report is out and Burry missed the big short squeeze on GameStop !
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things
Economic data: Business Inventories MoM (10:00 AM), Retail Inventories Ex Auto (10:00 AM), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM), Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (12:00 PM).
Pre-Market Earnings: Veru ($VERU), General Mills ($GIS), Spire Global ($SPIR), and Jabil ($JBL).
After-Market Earnings: Micron Technology ($MU).