CLOSING BELL
Twas The Night Before Rate Cuts
The market started Green but went red Tuesday, moving slowly as all eyes look toward the Fed rate cut expected tomorrow. It was a light day for big moves, but smaller stocks climbed on rate-cut hopes, and the Russell 2000 hit a midday high.
In macro, Job openings climbed in October, according to the first Fed JOLTS reading since the summer.
Larger firms were updating their guidance for the coming year. CVS jumped on a boosted 2026 vision with revenue above $400B, JPMorgan fell nearly 5% after raising its ‘26 expenses estimate to $105B. That’s 10% more than the largest bank spent this year, and the CEO of Consumer Banking, Marianne Lake, said it was going toward AI and dealing with credit competition. Silver stocks were flying after the metal hit a record.
The White House was defending its economic record for the first year or so of its term, with Trump giving the current grade an A+++++ for how he’s handling things. The Admin also handed out a $12B farm bailout aid package today.
I’m testing out new visuals for sector updates, let me know what you think!
AFTER THE BELL STOCKS
Two Old Time Meme Stocks Feeling Their Age
After the bell, GameStop $GME ( ▼ 1.03% ) was falling. It was the meme stock that started the retail craze back in 2021, but since then it hasn’t done much to capture attention. The video game store posted a Q3 profit of 24C/share, and sales of $821M.
The street wanted much more, closer to a billion in revenue. Sales were down 4.5% from a year ago. The company said the value of its cryptocurrency holdings was $519.4 million at the end of the quarter.
Cracker barrell $CBRL ( ▲ 1.43% ) , a more recent meme, was also falling after its report.
The stock for the old country store was down 9% in the post-market, showing a paltry $797.2M revenue, compared with the $800 million expected by analysts. Restaurant same-store sales dropped 4.7%, and 8.5% in the chain's retail business.
According to Placer.ai, traffic to Cracker Barrel locations was down 9% in November. Placer AI scrapes data from mobile phones to track customers. It was the first report since the brand redid its logo, cutting out the old white guy known as ‘old timer.’
The brand returned the old guy and the barrel, presumably of crackers, he sat next to, but it didn’t seem to change the fact that no one is spending money at its stores.
MACRO NEWS
FOMC Is On Track To Cut, But What Comes Next?
The FOMC is meeting today and tomorrow to finally decide what many have waited for: a Federal Funds Rate cut. Tune in Wednesday at 2 PM ET for the decision, and 2:30 for Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
The meeting will also showcase the super-not-boring FOMC dot plot, which shows where voting members predict the economy, inflation, and Fed rates will head in the new year. In the past three weeks, Fed speakers have shifted their tone dramatically toward a rate cut, and outdated macro data has been met with the worst job layoff numbers in years to support the cut.
According to a Bloomberg Intelligence report, the market is expecting three dissenting votes in the meeting to secure the likely 25 basis-point cut.
Added to the past three meetings, it would be eight total dissenting opinions on monetary policy. It might not seem like much in the divisive political market we live and breathe, but the Fed tends to agree with itself.
The biggest talk on the town is Kevin Hassett, the White House Chief Economic Advisor and likely top Fed chair replacement candidate. Hassett is a die-hard ‘cut rates like Trump says,’ believer: Just today he told WSJ more than 25 basis points of cuts were warranted tomorrow. Though the sinking economic conditions may warrant that attitude (if you can admit to yourself the economy is sinking), Wall Street seems worried Hassett won’t be able to convince the rest of the committee to cut rates like a wedding cake.
Or, with the high disagreement within the current FOMC, maybe changing some seats could change some minds. To put that eight-dissenting-vote number in perspective: you would have to go back and add up the results of 47 meetings to match the eight disagreeing votes we saw in the past four meetings. Again, since August, the market has seen as many FOMC votes in disagreement with the committee as in the past 4 years.
Which way will the FOMC vote? You Decide!
STOCK STORIES
The New Tech Giant Is Walmart
Walmart started trading on the Nasdaq on Tuesday, finally moving to midtown NYC after FIFTY YEARS trading downtown on the NYSE. It’ll be a slight change in commute for the second-largest retailer in the world by market cap, but Chief Doug McMillon said it was worth it.
“Walmart’s changed a lot, and we’re trying to make sure everybody knows it,” McMillon said.
The stock is up 7% since the company first announced the transition, already trading at 40 times earnings in a tech-stock way. WSJ reported it had historically traded at 23 times earnings, but is now just $100B away from a $1T market cap. Bank of America found it to be a popular stock, ranking it as the least shorted S&P 500 name in September.
It all comes from E-Commerce, with sales growing 20% YoY, and the build-out of the oft-quoted three-hour delivery range that reaches 95% of American households. The journey began during the COVID pandemic four years ago, to transition the big-box brand into an online shipping giant, complete with membership fees and third-party marketplace sellers.
Still, comparing its growth to Amazon, the king of online retail, Walmart has quite a way to go. Only 18M users sub to Walmart’s paid services, compared to more than 100M Amazon Prime members.
Top Stocks News Stories
Medline filed for major IPO with potential $55.3B valuation.
China rapidly developed homegrown AI chips, challenging Nvidia.
Paramount Skydance made $108B hostile bid for entire WBD.
Rocket Lab climbed 3.6% achieving its "SpaceX moment."
Polestar rose 9.4% ahead of 1-for-30 reverse split.
SpaceX targeted $1.5T valuation for potentially biggest IPO ever.
Standard Chartered delayed its Bitcoin $500,000 forecast until 2030.
JP Morgan fell 4.6% on warning of high 2026 expenses.
VIDEO
Markets Calm Before the Fed | Walmart Soars
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things
Economic data: Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM), FOMC Economic Projections (2:00 PM), FOMC Statement (2:00 PM), Fed Interest Rate Decision (2:00 PM).
Pre-Market Earnings: Chewy $CHWY ( ▲ 0.64% ) : Analysts project the pet e-commerce company will report adjusted earnings of $0.12 per share. Revenue is forecast at around $3.1 billion, with the market focused on growth in subscription sales and management's outlook for consumer spending in the pet category.
After-Market Earnings: Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 0.45% ) ☁️ Oracle is expected to report adjusted EPS of $1.64 per share on revenue of approximately $16.2 billion for its fiscal second quarter. Investors will be intensely focused on its multi-billion-dollar deals with AI partners like OpenAI.
Adobe $ADBE ( ▲ 1.53% ) : The digital media and software leader is forecast to report non-GAAP earnings of approximately $5.40 per share on revenue of nearly $6.11 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter. The key focus will be the performance and adoption rate of its Generative AI called Firefly and how well it is monetizing its Creative Cloud and Document Cloud platforms.
Synopsys $SNPS ( ▲ 0.02% ) : The software giant is expected to report adjusted EPS of $2.78 per share on revenue near $2.25 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter. This report provides a crucial gauge of future R&D spending by the world's leading chipmakers, including Nvidia and AMD.