Friday, January 16, 2026

Bank Beats and Semis Retool

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CLOSING BELL
Bank Beats and Semis Retool 

The market climbed Thursday, rebounding after a two day fall that felt huge following all-time records set to start the week.

Earnings from three massive banks and the largest producer of semiconductors came in green, printing wins for all involved. Taiwan Semiconductors gained in the last quarter of 2025, and its $56B capex for 2026 woke up a tired big tech and semi market toward some gains.

It could have been that, or the White House trade update with Taiwan, the U.S. dropping tariffs from the island nation to 15% from 30% in exchange for increased financing and $250B in direct investment.

The green day vibe also came from the year-end stats from investment banks, the top five recording a record $134B in trading revenue from last year. Goldman Sachs led the way, bringing in a Street record of $4.31B in just three months.

Silver fell after the White House did not set tariffs on critical metals. Oil fell 4% in a reaction to a lack of U.S. intervention action in Iran. 

Fed reserve gov Michael Barr said much of the same Thursday. There was positive news internationally, Bloomberg reporting a rumor that the U.S. and Greenland are closer to a mutually beneficial agreement.

Coming up: how TSMC performed in Q4, the Trump Care Plan and more. 

EARNINGS
Taiwan Semi Beat Boosts Industry Confidence 

The world’s largest contract chipmaker reported a 35% YoY increase in Q4 profit, its eighth consecutive quarter of YoY growth. Revenues were up 20.5% YoY and passed NT$1 trillion.  

$TSM ( ▲ 4.44% ) Executives guided for roughly 38% YoY revenue growth in the coming quarter (up 4% QoQ) at the midpoint. Driving that will be the continued AI buildout, with CFO Wendell Huang saying, “We expect our business to be supported by continued strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies.” For context, last quarter the high-performing computing division accounted for 55% of sales, with smartphones at 32%. 

Smaller, faster, better is what everyone in the chip space is chasing…and Taiwan Semiconductor is a critical partner for the entire industry. As such, it signaled a major increase in capital spending for the upcoming year to keep pace with demand. 

One potential flag from analysts is that ongoing memory shortages and price hikes could put pressure on chip demand tied to consumer electronics.But the market is overlooking that and is focused on the upbeat AI outlook. 

Shares moved to new all-time highs, boosting the entire chip industry, from Nvidia and AMD to ASML and Lam Research. It helped save the market from its recent selloff and put a brighter outlook on next week's tech earnings. 

Source: Stocktwits

EARNINGS
Rounding Out The Big Bank Earnings 

Morgan Stanley emerged as the star of the banking sector, with shares jumping $MS ( ▲ 5.78% ) after a 47% surge in investment banking fees. The bank's $2.68 EPS easily beat the $2.41 consensus, fueled by a wave of year-end M&A activity and its lead role in major 2025 IPOs. 

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 4.63% ) also posted a massive earnings beat with an EPS of $14.01 against an $11.62 estimate, though its stock saw a slight "sell the news" dip of 1.9%. While revenue of $13.45 billion was technically a miss, the firm achieved its second-highest annual net earnings in history, proving that the return of equity underwriting and asset management fees is fueling a high-margin recovery for the big banks.

BlackRock $BLK ( ▲ 5.94% ) officially became the first asset manager to hit $14 trillion in Assets Under Management (AUM) following a record $342 billion in quarterly net inflows. The firm reported an adjusted EPS of $13.16, handily beating the $12.39 estimate, and rewarded shareholders with a 10% dividend hike. The growth was driven by a "massive rotation" into iShares ETFs and private-market assets as institutional investors repositioned for the 2026 fiscal cycle. 

POLICY
Trump Shares Broad Health-Care Plan Outline 

Senate Republicans are gridlocking Congress over Democratic efforts to extend key Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits, leaving millions at risk of seeing their health insurance premiums spike. Trump has been vocal about his opposition to the ACA and even suggested he would veto it if it reached his desk.

Instead, he’s been teasing his own solution to improving healthcare affordability, finally sharing details of the initiative, which he called “The Great Healthcare Plan,” which includes these key components:

  • Lower drug prices by slashing prescription drug prices and allowing more over-the-counter medicines.

  • Lower insurance premiums by sending subsidies directly to Americans, funding cost-sharing reduction programs, and cutting kickback costs.

  • Hold big insurance companies accountable by creating the “plain-English insurance” standard, public costs of overhead vs. claim payments, and displaying claim denial rates. 

  • Maximizing price transparency by requiring Medicare and Medicaid providers to post their prices 

The White House plan very clearly leaves out an extension of the ACA subsidies, which Democrats say need to be included in any deal. However, Trump is pushing forward, saying, “I’m calling on Congress to pass this framework into law without delay. Have to do it right now.”

Now that Democrats and Republicans know what the White House is prioritizing, they can work it into the new bill and put forward something that has a chance of being signed by Trump. As a White House official said, “the plan does not close the door on extending the subsidies, but lays out the president’s preferences,” which include sending money directly to people instead of insurance companies.

Insurance company stocks like Oscar Health, UnitedHealthcare, etc. traded down initially on the day, but reversed higher and are firmly in the green due to optimism that the subsidies are not completely off the table. 

POPS & DROPS
Top Stocks News Stories 

Find Stocks “Shorts” on YouTube 

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 

Economic data: Industrial Production + MoM + YoY (9:15 AM), FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (11:00 AM), U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM). 
Pre-Market Earnings: PNC Financial Services Group ($PNC), Regions Financial Corp. ($RF), State Street Corp. ($STT), and M & T Bank Corp ($MTB). 

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