Super Smuggling Computer (Allegedly)

 

CLOSING BELL The market climbed Monday after tech, megacap growth, and the AI trade pulled the tape past a messy geopolitical backdrop.  The S&P 500 gained 1.6%, QQQ jumped 2.5%, and the Dow added 0.8%, while IWM slipped 0.3%. Oil stayed firm as Trump pointed to fresh U.S.-Iran talks in Doha, but the tape treated Hormuz risk like just another headline, despite yet more back and forth bombings over the weekend.  Tech was back Monday, but the rotation was not subtle: capital kept chasing semis, AI hardware, space, and squeeze candidates, while anything with regulatory smoke got punished.  Stocks was loudest around $SLS, $OUST, $JACK, $TSLA, and $SMCI, a very normal cocktail of biotech trial anticipation, physical AI, squeeze hunting, robotaxi hope, and governance dread.  Today's Briefing:  After the Bell: Super Micro got raided in Taiwan as its chip-smuggling probe widened  Stocks: Rocket Lab bought Iridium, Comcast split itself up, and deal math became the story  Macro News: Citadel says retail flows, options rolls, ETFs, and July seasonality are steering the tape  Pops and Drops & More

AFTER THE BELL Super Micro Gets Raided Super Micro Computer, the AI-server maker tied closely to Nvidia demand, fell Monday after Taiwanese authorities expanded a chip-smuggling probe into allegedly illegal exports of Super Micro servers to China. According to Bloomberg, regulators raided Super Micro’s Taiwan office, six residences, and three affiliated company sites, turning an export-control investigation into a direct governance risk for the stock.  The RIP:  $SMCI ( ▼ 8.1% ) closed -8.1%, fell as much as -9.4%, volume 90.0M, turnover $2.6B, 52-week range $19.48 to $62.36, after-hours +1.1%.  Super Micro said it is cooperating with Taiwanese authorities and that its products “continued to be targeted.” It’s not the first time the firm has run into issues with regulators. Super Micro paid a $17.5M SEC settlement in 2020 over accounting violations, faced short reports in 2024 that alleged accounting red flags, faced delayed filings and an auditor exit, and subpoenas. Monday’s Taiwan raid adds a new smuggling-cloud problem to a stock already carrying old governance baggage.  Community is mixed, message volume is low across ~89.5k watchers. Stocks showed 149 SMCI messages over 24 hours, with 38.9k symbol-page views and 237 watchlist adds today.  @Steve_TheBull_Rogers said: "$SMCI They raided the SMCI offices! Damn. Longs you got learn this is just a toxic company" (post) @MikeWazowski44 said: "$SMCI Management broken, not the company. New leadership and this is $80." (post) Bring the receipts to $SMCI and call the raid ->

Good Reading !

STOCKS Rocket Lab Goes Bigger  Rocket Lab, the launch and satellite-systems company, surged Monday after agreeing to buy Iridium, the satellite communications operator, in a cash-and-stock deal that gives it a global network, L-band spectrum, and a direct-to-device foothold. The market read was simple: Rocket Lab is trying to become a vertically integrated SpaceX challenger instead of just a launch-and-hardware supplier.  The RIP:  $RKLB ( ▲ 15.93% ) closed +15.9%, $IRDM closed +25.4%, deal value about $8.0B EV, $54/share consideration, $27 cash plus Rocket Lab stock, expected close mid-2027, termination fee about $224M.  This is strategic, but not clean. Bulls get recurring Iridium revenue, 2.55M subscribers, spectrum, and a faster path into satellite services; bears get dilution, debt questions, and a stock still well below its 52-week high after a rough June. The forward test is whether investors keep paying for the SpaceX-challenger story once the financing math gets louder.  Community is bullish, message volume is high across ~62.4k watchers. Stocks showed 102 RKLB messages over 72 hours, with 23.9k symbol-page views and 234 watchlist adds today.  @JonG12345 said: "$RKLB HOW THE F*CK ARE THEY GOING TO PAY $8B in cash and stock deal?" (post) Take part in the poll to see results. Comcast Breaks Itself Up  Comcast, the cable, broadband, and media giant, closed higher Monday after saying it will spin off NBCUniversal and Sky into a new publicly traded company. The stock faded hard from its morning spike, but investors still treated the move as a forced re-rating attempt: one company for connectivity, one for media, streaming, studios, sports, and theme parks.  The RIP: $CMCSA closed +4.5%, after trading as high as +17.0%, volume 134.5M, 3.4x average, 52-week range $22.13 to $32.73, tax-free spin expected in about one year, Comcast may retain up to 19.9% of NBCUniversal.  The close was less exciting than the open. Comcast shareholders get both companies, but buybacks pause during the process, dividend details are coming later, and the remaining cable business still has to prove broadband, wireless, and business services can offset cord-cutting pressure. The forward test is whether the market values the split, or just fades another legacy media restructuring.  Community is neutral, message volume is normal across ~13.0k watchers. Stocks showed 100 CMCSA messages over 72 hours, with 11.4k symbol-page views and 164 watchlist adds today.  @Dividendology said: "$CMCSA this split will likely allow the new content and experiences business to get their valuation multiple re rated higher." (post) Take it to $CMCSA and call the split ->

MACRO NEWS Flows Take Over  As June ends, Citadel Securities says investors are staring at a record retail bid, the largest options expiration ever, pension rebalancing, and a July allocation window that has historically favored risk assets. It was the biggest June yet, according to a new thread the firm’s options and retail desk posted last week.  Check out the report from Citadel The RIP: May retail cash equity volume hit an all-time high, 10% above the GameStop blow up in January 2021, and June is tracking 9% higher. Nine of the 10 biggest retail buying days on record happened in the last month. June 12 was the largest net buying day ever, 50% above the prior record. Citadel called retail investors one of the strongest sources of demand in today’s market.  Retail is shifting. Options premium hit $5.8B per day in May and roughly $7B in June, with semis leading at about $1.9B as traders crowd into chips and Mag 7 instead of the old meme-stock squeeze basket.  The next risk is mechanical. Citadel said roughly $8.3T of options exposure rolls off or resets in June, 18% above the prior record, while 110% funded pension plans could sell equities into quarter-end before July’s fresh allocation cycle.  The flow picture still favors the leaders. ETFs are 31% of volume, inflows have topped $1T this year, leveraged ETF assets are near $218B, and every S&P 500 dollar keeps feeding semis, Mag 7, and the top 10 names.  Seasonality adds the tailwind. The S&P 500 has gained in the first half of July 69% of the time since 1928, the Nasdaq 100 has risen 76% of the time since 1985, retail usually gets busier, and buyback authorizations are already at a record $925B.

TRENDING ON STOCKS Pops & Drops $OUST ( ▲ 28.68% )  Ouster : ripped +28% after AIM lidar supply deal fueled AI-fleet bulls  $SLS ( ▲ 24.7% )  SELLAS : surged +25% after REGAL Phase 3 anticipation squeezed shorts  $JACK ( ▲ 20.2% )  Jack in the Box : soared +21% after debt-reduction hopes squeezed crowded shorts  $GLW ( ▲ 15.67% )  Corning : jumped +16% after Amazon AI data-center deal reset expectations  $MSTR ( ▲ 12.6% )  Strategy: surged +13% after buybacks and bitcoin monetization plan  $AXON ( ▲ 9.85% )  Axon: climbed +10% after Trump stake disclosure boosted ICE-contract speculation  $PANW ( ▲ 9.14% )  Palo Alto: climbed +9% after cybersecurity bulls chased beat-and-raise momentum  $LCID ( ▲ 9.97% )  Lucid : popped +9% after EV shorts squeezed with Tesla  $TSLA ( ▲ 8.46% )  Tesla : jumped +8% after FSD rollout and delivery optimism