MACRO NEWS
Warsh Skips Whispering | The FOMC, led by a new king of the money (FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh) delivered a classic maintain decision Wednesday. The projection material, the dot plot famous among nerds like me shows how governors expect inflation, unemployment, and the Fed’s target rates to play out, was the fear factor that helped convince high prices to fall. | The RIP: FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% in a 12-0 vote. The June SEP lifted 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% from 2.7% in March, core PCE to 3.3% from 2.7%, and the projected year-end fed funds rate to 3.8% from 3.4%. |  | This projection, coming a FED that does not want to give much clarity, is pretty bleak. |
| The statement, in a drastic change from the stuffy decorum of the past FOMC, was just three paragraphs. In my last role at a brokerage, we had an automated tracker to check exactly what wording had changed in the newest FOMC statement, I worry that their servers might have lit on fire with how much was different today. | So nothing changed, what’s the big deal? The FOMC put together a dot plot that showed some grim realities facing the American economy. By years end, they expect inflation to hit 3.6%, up nearly a full % point from the last read- mostly based on a whopping hundred day long war that is stillwrapping up. Also, last years tariffs (uncle sam is paying them back), and insanity level AI capex from the worlds largest companies is not helping. | Based on that reality, NINE of the twelve FOMC voters expect a rate HIKE by year’s end. That means borrowing money is more expensive for corporate bonds aswell as home, car, and personal credit loans. But the goal of course is that treasury bills pay back more, so hopefully inflationary spending simmers down. It also cuts into stock market spending, corporate profits, and earnings. Warsh did not place his own dot, a new boss in favor of less transparency at the FOMC. | “Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” Warsh said in his first press conference, while treasuries sold off, the dollar climbed, and stocks went red. |  | Nine members said they expected rates to rise this year |
| The rate hike pain showed up fastest in the names where higher rates actually bite: $CVNA got smoked as used-car credit and funding worries came back, $EFX sold off with the mortgage and consumer-credit complex, and $SATS faded as speculative SpaceX-adjacent momentum cooled. Software also got dragged into the “money is not free” bucket, with $NOW, $CRM, and $MSFT all lower. The Fed said less, but the tape heard plenty. |
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Moderna Gets A Shot | Moderna, the mRNA vaccine developer still trying to prove it has life after COVID, surged Wednesday after FDA briefing documents gave traders a cleaner setup into Thursday’s flu-shot advisory vote. | The RIP: $MRNA ( ▲ 11.55% ) jumped 11.6% to $61.80, after touching $62.30 intraday. The FDA’s advisory committee meets June 18 to discuss MFLUSIVA, Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine, for adults 50 years and older. Trial data showed a 27%reduction in flu-like illness versus a standard-dose flu shot. | This is a big swing because Moderna badly needs a non-COVID revenue bridge, and flu is one of the few recurring vaccine markets large enough to matter. The catch is that FDA staff still flagged questions around how the data holds up across flu seasons and older-adult populations, so Thursday’s vote is less victory lap and more “please let this pipeline story breathe again.” | Community is bullish, message volume is high across ~110.8k watchers. The room was focused on FDA odds, short squeeze mechanics, and whether the flu shot can become a recurring revenue product. | @AlohaPlateLunch said: "$MRNA if this flu shot works, it'll have a much better chance of long term recurring use." (post) @TriadDynamics said: "$MRNA disclosure, I added layers of puts lol" (post)
| Make your $MRNA case: flu bridge or squeeze → | Nebius Joins The Club | Nebius, the AI cloud infrastructure company spun out of the old Yandex orbit, climbed again Wednesday. It was one of the lucky winners added to the Nasdaq-100, alongside Astera Labs, CoreWeave, and Rocket Lab, and fans are excited. The stocks land on the index June 22, with $800B in passive investment assets ready to start buying their share. | The RIP: $NBIS ( ▲ 5.96% ) rose 6.0% to $280.91, after touching $297.93 intraday. | The bull case is simple: GPUs, cloud capacity, and hyperscaler alternatives are still getting paid. The bear case is just as simple: after a monster move, $NBIS is now a momentum name with index buyers behind it and valuation gravity waiting in front of it. | Community is neutral, message volume is normal across ~43.8k watchers. The stream was loud but split between long-term AI believers, profit-takers, and traders warning that a hawkish Fed can hit high-multiple momentum names fast. | @Kernel_Bomb said: "$NBIS With today's price action, my shares of Nebius are worth over a million." (post) @Liuyilong said: "$NBIS... momentum stocks will drop 30%-40% at minimum!" (post)
| Tell the $NBIS room: index bid or blowoff → |
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