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| The market sold off Wednesday as the Iran war, stubborn inflation, and a newly divided Fed made expensive tech the wrong place to hide. The Nasdaq 100 fell into correction territory, and QQQ with it. | Energy was the lone shelter while industrials and semiconductors absorbed the worst selling. Warsh held rates steady, but three dissenters wanted a hike. After hours, Microsoft paired its $41B capex bill with 43% Azure growth and rallied, while Meta’s softer forecast and 91% free-cash-flow collapse sank shares. | Stocks caught the divide: Microsoft’s room stayed 62% bullish, Meta flipped 67% bearish, and Sandisk’s 83% bullish crowd tried catching the falling memory trade. | Today's Briefing: Powered by Stocktwits Community API. | After the Bell: Microsoft and Meta showed why the market funds AI only when growth leaves a receipt. Macro News: The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75%, but three officials voted for an immediate hike. What's Trending Now on Stocktwits Are investors right to reward Microsoft’s AI spending while punishing Meta’s?
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| | | | AFTER THE BELL
Same Bill, Different Receipt | | Microsoft and Meta both told investors Wednesday that AI infrastructure will keep devouring cash, but the market rewarded only the company that paired the bill with accelerating demand. Microsoft rose after hours while Meta sank, proving investors are not allergic to capex, only capex without a near-term receipt. | The RIP: $MSFT jumped +7% after hours as revenue reached $90B vs. $87.7B expected and EPS hit $4.81 vs. $4.25. $META fell -8% after posting $60.8B vs. $60.3B expected, while EPS missed at $6.18 vs. $7.19. | Microsoft spent $41B on capital expenditures, up 70% but below the $42B expected. Azure accelerated 43%, its fastest growth since early 2022, surpassed the 40% estimate, and crossed $100B in annual revenue. Microsoft 365 Copilot reached 30M paid users, up from 20M three months earlier. | Meta’s ad engine also delivered, with advertising revenue rising 27% to $59.4B. But quarterly capex nearly doubled to $31.1B, the company raised the bottom of its annual spending range to $130B, and its third-quarter sales midpoint landed below consensus. Free cash flow collapsed 91% to $784Mas data centers absorbed nearly everything operations produced. | | Microsoft can point directly from AI spending to Azure consumption and paid Copilot seats, while Meta still relies on mature social apps to finance data centers, models, and products that barely register in revenue. Investors accepted Microsoft’s larger check because 43% cloud growth was stapled to it. Meta brought a softer forecast and asked for patience. | The Community Read: Stocks flipped 67% bear on $META while $MSFT held 62% bullish, read the split -> |
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| | | | MACRO NEWS
The Hawks Find Names | | Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Fed chair ended with rates unchanged Wednesday, but three dissents turned June’s anonymous rate-hike warnings into an open split. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan wanted to raise rates immediately, while Warsh argued that higher market yields are already doing some of the Fed’s work. | “There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee’s watch,” Kevin Warsh, Fed chair, said Wednesday. “Markets have made decisions because we stepped back, in part, from trying to influence those markets.” | The RIP: The FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting in a 9-3 vote. In June, 9 of 18participants projected at least one 2026 hike, 8 saw no change, and 1 projected a cut. The 2-year Treasury yield slipped 2 bps to 4.24%. | “A few participants commented that, in light of these developments, there was a case for raising the target range,” the June FOMC minutes said. | The Fed copied June’s statement almost word for word, but the vote underneath it changed dramatically. Warsh’s first meeting ended 12-0 for a hold even though nine dots projected a hike, including six that called for multiple increases, and Warsh declined to submit his own rate forecast. | Six weeks later, three officials put their names behind the dots while Warsh stayed on hold, making Thursday’s inflation report and the next jobs data the bridge to September. Higher-for-longer rates keep pressure on $KRE regional banks, $IWM small caps, and homebuilders $DHI and $LEN. |
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| | | | POPS AND DROPS
TRENDING NOW | | 211K WATCHERS · 59% BULLISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY | Micron Technology extended its memory rout after SK Hynix posted a record 60.5T won operating profit that still missed the 64T won forecast, while $SNDK fell with it. Micron’s community wrestled with the ugly question created by sky-high expectations: If record profits cannot support memory stocks, what can? | | | 99.4K WATCHERS · 43% BULLISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY | Robinhood posted record revenue of $1.31B and EPS of $0.62, but $0.14 per share came from gains tied to deconsolidating a fund while crypto revenue fell 38%. Traders must decide whether 13 business lines above $100M in annualized revenue outweigh the lower-quality boost beneath the headline beat. | | | 75.7K WATCHERS · 74% BULLISH · LOW ACTIVITY | Qualcomm’s revenue fell 4% to $9.9B and adjusted EPS dropped 20% to $2.21 as handset sales sank 20%, overwhelming 61% growth in automotive. The bullish community is betting diversification arrives before higher memory and supply costs squeeze margins again, a familiar promise now carrying a much less forgiving price tag. | |
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