IBM’s stock has carved out a textbook bullish pattern since dipping below two hundred sixty dollars back in October twenty twenty-five. Fast-forward to now, late January twenty twenty-six, and it’s trading near three hundred nine after that crisp five-percent earnings blast. Let’s strip the fluff and read the tape.
From a pure price lens, we’ve got higher highs and higher lows stacking since the November low around two hundred fifty-two. That two hundred ninety-five mark turned from resistance to rock-solid support last week—volume dried up there before buyers stepped in hard on January twenty-ninth. The five-day average true range sits at four dollars, so expect swings around that ballpark; anything wider screams volatility.
Moving averages? Textbook gold. Twenty-day at two hundred ninety-seven point five, fifty-day just over three hundred two, two hundred-day chilling near two hundred seventy-eight. All pointing up, no death cross in sight. Short-term traders love the gap above three hundred fifteen—earnings left an unfilled one there; fill that and we test three hundred twenty, then the psychological three hundred thirty ceiling from December’s mini-bubble.
Indicators aren’t screaming overbought yet. Fourteen-day RSI hit sixty-eight post-spike but rolled back to sixty-three—comfort zone for bulls. MACD histogram’s fattening at three point nine; watch for that zero-line crossover fade if volume leaks. Stochastics on the hourly are looping upward, so intraday dips to three hundred four should hold unless sellers flood in.
Support ladder: first line two hundred ninety-five, then two hundred eighty-eight where the fifty-day bends. Breach that and we’re back to Christmas lows at two hundred seventy-nine—bearish pivot, but odds low with IBM’s AI narrative pumping analyst notes left and right. Resistance-wise, three hundred twenty acts as a magnet; clear it cleanly and three hundred thirty-five becomes the moonshot target, aligning with the two-thousand twenty-five extension channel.
Market breadth helps too—IBM’s outperforming the Nasdaq hundred lately, beta down to point eight, so it’s holding steadier than pure cloud plays. Put-call ratio dipped to zero point four on earnings day; fresh money chasing calls means fuel left in the tank. Options flow shows heavy two-twenty-five calls bought cheap, now rolling profits—smart rotation keeping bids alive.
Watch broader tech rotation: if Nvidia cools, IBM might leak sympathy selling. But fundamentals tie it to enterprise spending, less frothy than consumer AI hype. In short, ride the tape while momentum’s clean—buy dips to the twenty-day, scalp resistance fails, and keep stops tight under two hundred ninety. This one’s trending, not topping.