CLOSING BELL
Record High and Frosty
The cold January wind felt extra chilly Thursday, as Microsoft and software yanked the green record away. ServiceNow, CoreWeave, and Salesforce were all falling lower.
There were macroeconomic reasons for doubt, outside of insane AI spending. First, FOMC diddn't move rates, and Chair Powell said they are more cautious about the labor market than ever and said whoever gets his job next should never 'get involved in elected politics'
That sent metals into volatility: Gold fell back slightly, from a brand spankin new high of $5,500. Goldman Sachs set a year-end target on the shiny metal at $5,400, last week.
The November U.S. trade balance deficit — the difference between what we bought and imported vs. what we sold and exported — climbed the most MoM in 34 years to $56.8B, nearly doubling from the Oct. deficit. The argument for a “tariff cut down imports” is not looking strong, at least not yet.
The Senate failed to pass a budget bill, Democrats unanimously voted against Department of Homeland Security funds after the ICE raids. Later Thursday night, Trump and Dems struck a deal: fund DHS for two weeks while they wait for the ice to thaw, then vote again.
It wasn’t all bad for tech: IBM and ASML were climbing on AI software and chip production expectations. Apple reported revenue that climbed 16% in Q1 to a record of more than $144B.
But Meta took the cake for the biggest year ahead, laying the groundwork for what Zuck called personal superintelligence. And speaking of AI spending, it’s paying big bucks in capex, $115 B-$135B to build out its AI engine. For the Gen Z out there, remember when we used Snapchat before Insta?
That might be the same thing with Meta AI this year, so look out you ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini heads.
Index | Ticker | Level | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | $SPY | 694.04 | 🔴-0.20% | 🔴-0.16% |
Nasdaq 100 | $QQQ | 629.43 | 🔴-0.60% | 🔴-0.48% |
Russell 2000 | $IWM | 263.37 | 🟢+0.03% | 🟢+0.02% |
Dow | $DIA | 490.21 | 🟢+0.02% | 🟢+0.01% |
Bitcoin | $BTC | 84,478 | 🟢+0.00% | 🟢+0.00% |
📱 Comm. Services | $XLC | 119.79 | 🟢+2.60% | 🟢+2.08% |
💻 Technology | $XLK | 146.87 | 🔴-1.58% | 🔴-1.26% |
AFTER THE BELL
Everyone Is Buying iPhones With Visa Cards :
Apple: Record iPhone Sales Drive Monster Beat
Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.72% ) delivered a blowout quarter as the iPhone 17 cycle triggered a massive replacement wave, particularly in premium Pro models. The company set all-time revenue records in every geographic segment, pushing the active device base to over 2.5 billion.
“iPhone had its best-ever quarter driven by unprecedented demand, with all-time records across every geographic segment, and Services also achieved an all-time revenue record, up 14 percent from a year ago," Chief Tim Cook said. "Our installed base now has more than 2.5 billion active devices, which is a testament to incredible customer satisfaction for the very best products and services in the world.”
The Numbers: $2.84 EPS vs. $2.68estimate; revenue of $143.8 billionvs. $138.4 billion expected.
The Catalyst: iPhone revenue surged 23% to $85.3 billion, significantly outperforming the $79 billion consensus as consumer demand for AI-integrated hardware intensified.
The Outlook: Management declared a $0.26 dividend and signaled continued momentum in Services, which hit an all-time high of 14% growth.
Visa Consumer Resilience Powers Double-Digit Growth
Visa $V ( ▲ 1.47% ) reported a solid beat-and-raise quarter, benefiting from sustained global transaction volumes and a shift toward high-margin cross-border digital payments. Despite a recent stock dip, the underlying payments infrastructure remains in a high-growth phase.
The Numbers: $3.17 adjusted EPS vs. $3.14 estimate; revenue of $10.9 billion vs. $10.7 billionexpected.
The Catalyst: Total revenue grew 15% year-over-year, supported by a resilient labor market and increasing travel-related payment volumes.
The Why: The company maintained its record of four consecutive quarters of EPS surprises, reflecting disciplined margin management.
INDUSTRY NEWS
Everyone’s Investing in Open AI
The Information, a well known insider scoop finder for silicoln valley, reported that a handful of companies are looking to invest in OpenAI, the same day that Microsoft was hit with one of its worst trading days since Covid for its data center spending.
OpenAI is reportedly in discussions to raise a historic funding round that could reach $100 billion, anchored by its primary infrastructure providers. The massive capital injection aims to fund an ambitious $1 trillion AI infrastructure build-out as the company scales to compete with $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.67% ).
The Numbers: Potential anchor investments include up to $30 billion from $NVDA, $10 billion–$20 billion from $AMZN, and less than $10 billion from $MSFT.
The Catalyst: The deal is heavily tied to strategic cloud and hardware partnerships, including a potential server rental expansion with $AMZN and continued chip dependency on $NVDA.
The Outlook: This round, which may also include $30 billion from SoftBank, announced Wednesday, reflects the staggering costs of the AI arms race and OpenAI’s transition toward a massive enterprise hardware footprint.
In related news, that looks like Elon Musk playing with his own toys in another room while everyone else is at recess, Bloomberg reports that Elon Musk is considering a merger between $TSLA and SpaceX, or alternatively, a combination between SpaceX and xAI.
And while the kids play, Microsoft already owns 27% of OpenAI, taking the brunt of the ‘stop paying so much for AI’ hate already. Microsoft Word is what people think of when they think Microsoft, but it has become the major cloud provider player aside from AWS. Bloomberg reported Thursday that AI startup Perplexity signed a $750 million cloud infrastructure deal with $MSFT, moving away from Amazon.
The deal highlights $MSFT's strategy of becoming the universal foundry for the AI era, diversifying its exposure across multiple model builders.
TRENDING STOCKS
Big Ole’ Stock stories
$MSFT (-10.23%): Shares plummeted after fiscal Q2 results showed $37.5 billion in capital expenditures, a 66% surge that stoked fears. While revenue of $81.3 billion beat estimates, the Azure unit fell to 39%, from 40% last quarter, and the market was sorely let down. Morgan Stanley took it off their top pick list, Citi and Barclays cut their price targets slightly.
$LUV (+18.45%): Surged to a one-day record gain after reporting Q4 results and a massive transformation plan that includes assigned seating and baggage fees. Finally.
$TSLA (-3.4%): Tesla beat on margins, and said it is canning Model S and Model X production. Musk also hopes to start two seater cyber cab in April. This comes as the car business faces serious headwinds, with Q4 deliveries down 16% YoY and revenue down 3% YoY. The stock started the day higher but retreated, now climbing after hours.
Biggest Movers
$LUV (+18.55%): Leading the pack following a massive business model overhaul and aggressive 2026 profitability guidance of $4.00 per share.
$RCL (+18.55%): Hit a daily high of $351.57 after 2025 results shattered industry precedents, underpinned by $17.9 billion in annual revenue.
$NCLH (+10.25%): Lifted by sector-wide euphoria as Royal Caribbean's "wave" season data confirmed a sustainable, high-growth era for the entire cruise industry.
$CCL (+8.50%): Jumped to $31.14in sympathy with peers, benefiting from record industry occupancy rates and strong forward pricing power.
$IBM (+5.06%): Notched solid gains after a strong 2025 finish, with investors rotating into the name as a defensive play within the enterprise tech space.
$LVS (-13.96%): Crushed despite record performance in Singapore, as persistent margin compression in its Macau portfolio drove a retreat to intraday lows of $51.92.
$URI (-12.87%): Remained one of the day's worst performers after failing to meet bottom-line expectations, ending the session near $786.97.
$TEAM (-10.67%): Faced heavy selling pressure to hit a new 52-week low of $115.01 following reports of aggressive AI competition and ongoing CEO share sales.
$FSLR (-10.18%): Retreated sharply to $224.01 as the sector reacted to shifting federal policy expectations and a broader rotation out of clean energy.
$NOW (-9.94%): Finished near the bottom of the software stack as the "growth at any cost" narrative was challenged by sub-20% organic guidance.
MEDIA
Memes, Metals, and Trending Stocks
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things :
Economic data: ISM Services PMI 10:00 AM ET
Pre-Market Earnings: $XOM, $VZ, $CVX, $AXP, $REGN, $CL, $APD, $CNI.