Warsh Says “Hike” Three Times

 

U.S. stocks closed lower Friday as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh revived the possibility of rate hikes and technology gave back part of its post-earnings rally.  Warsh said inflation was not improving fast enough, pushing September hike odds above 50% and the 2-year Treasury yield past 4.3%. Communication services led the market, but technology, utilities, and small caps took the higher-rate warning personally.  Stocks activity stayed outside the megacaps. Reading International’s thinly traded Class B shares drew extremely high message volume on squeeze speculation, while bullish traders crowded into SELLAS, Boost Run, and Affirm after very different Fridays.  Today's Briefing: Powered by Stocktwits Community API. Macro News: Warsh put rate hikes back in play without committing to one  After the Bell: PayPal’s abandoned buyout erased its takeover premium  Stocks: BMF shorted SELLAS as financing anxiety hit AI infrastructure  Sector News: Communication services led as technology and utilities absorbed higher yields  What's Trending Now on Stocks

MACRO NEWS Say The Word, Kevin  JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING - AUGUST 28: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh (Photo by Natalie Behring/Getty Images) Poor Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair and peer on a first-name basis, made his first major speech Friday morning on the state of the Fed from beautiful Jackson Hole, Wyo. Trump’s pick this year to man the most important institution in the free world, Warsh is having a hard time saying what the bond market clearly wants him to: we have to raise rates, or the Treasury bill mafia that runs the world will beat me with wrenches. Warsh did say “hike” three times in the opening seconds, but only while comparing Jackson Hole trail companions. Somewhere, a prediction-market algo bought the joke and priced in 200 basis points. The RIP: Twelve-month PCE inflation is 3.7%, with the six-month rate at 4.1%. September hike odds jumped above 50% from roughly 36%, while the 2-year Treasury yield climbed more than 10 basis points to above 4.3%.  “Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do,” Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, said Friday. Warsh called the 2% target firm, said financial conditions were hardly restrictive, and declared that short-term interest rates remain the Fed’s main tool.  He also skipped the $40T national debt and projected $2.1T annual deficit. “Debt” appeared once, in a thank-you to the symposium’s hosts. His escape hatch was AI-driven growth, which may someday help America outrun its bills. Let’s all hope.

AFTER THE BELL PayPal’s Premium Vanishes  PayPal, the global payments platform behind Venmo and Braintree, plunged Friday after Bloomberg reported that Stripe and Advent International abandoned their takeover pursuit. The pair offered $60.50 per share in July, but PayPal reportedly considered the bid insufficient.  The RIP: $PYPL fell 12.7% to $53.66 on 3.5 times its recent volume. The proposed offer valued PayPal at roughly $53B, while the stock had climbed more than 42% during the quarter as traders priced in a deal.  The quick buyout win is gone, leaving not much excitement in the stock besides CEO Enrique Lores’ turnaround hopes. And those hopes were last championed back in July after their Q2 report. Back then PayPal raised its profit outlook, and management is targeting $1.5B in savings, but it's about to be September.  The Community Read: The bullish room is treating the deal collapse as a valuation reset ->

STOCKS REGAL Gets Shorted  SELLAS Life Sciences, a clinical-stage cancer-drug developer, fell Friday after a short report from a firm I have never heard of called BMF circulated around its Phase 3 REGAL leukemia trial. The idea is that participant survivability in the trial SLS fanatics can’t wait to hear about is not that big of a deal. I am not one way or the other on this, just reporting the allegations. Moreover, BMF writes that the nearly $3B market cap vested on this result is betting the result is already great news.  Remember, short reports generally state they will profit if a stock falls.  The RIP: $SLS dropped 13.1% to $13.21 on 9.7M shares, roughly its recent volume pace. Reported short interest stood at 56.4M shares, or 27.91% of float, as of August 14. That delayed figure shows crowded positioning, not proof that shorts drove Friday’s move.  REGAL remained at 78 of the 80 events needed to trigger its final analysis in the latest company update. Until that update, one of Stocktwits’ loudest retail communities will have to keep waiting.  The Community Read: The room split nearly down the middle as REGAL anxiety returned -> “$SLS I'm back after my 2 day timeout. Sold 20% of my position yesterday.” @I_Buy_Stock “$SLS when the SP hit $100 i will unblock all the bears” @elden_ring AI’s Financing Bill Arrives  Nvidia’s new role as banker to the AI boom hit a snag Friday. The Wall Street Journal reported that the chipmaker paused some cloud revenue-sharing deals over partner pushback and antitrust concerns, though Nvidia said the broader program remains active and continues to evolve.  The RIP: $NVDA fell 4.6%, while $IREN, $APLD, and $BRUN dropped 12.5%, 7.7%, and 17.3%. Neither $APLD nor $BRUN was identified as part of the paused deals, making their declines sector read-throughs rather than confirmed contract hits.  IREN supplied the actual financing bill with its earnings report. Quarterly revenue slipped to $137.2M from $144.8M, and adjusted EBITDA fell to $19.2M from $59.5M as the company retired Bitcoin miners and built out its cloud platform. This we already know. Nvidia and Co. championed their AI company spending spree during their Wednesday report, as the CFO said it was great picks to invest in the future. They bought 30M shares of IREN at $70/each in May.  The feeling on Friday, with rate increase talks, was yeah right, we’ll believe it when we see it. 🧾  The Community Read: The bullish IREN room is betting execution outruns the financing bill -> “They are paying for a cloud company that doesn't have its revenue yet.” @KavaStocks “$NVDA insane earnings report is worth 1 day of gains followed by no one remembering the next day.” @Greenzombie04

POPS & DROPS Trending Now $SOFI -5.7% | SoFi: Warsh puts rate hikes back in play 155.9K WATCHERS · BULLISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY SoFi fell after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said rate increases may be needed if inflation does not return to 2% quickly enough. Traders punished the rate-sensitive fintech, while the bullish room argued that higher rates are already reflected in management’s outlook.  $SLV -4.4% | Silver: Hawkish Fed talk hits precious metals 61.8K WATCHERS · BEARISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY Silver slid as Warsh’s inflation warning lifted Treasury yields and strengthened the dollar. Profit-takers controlled the Stocktwits room Friday, but longer-term bulls continued framing government deficits and currency debasement as reasons to buy the pullback.  $NLST +8.4% | Netlist: Patent chatter rises without a new filing 27.1K WATCHERS · BULLISH · NORMAL ACTIVITY Netlist jumped without a fresh company filing Friday. The Stocktwits room returned to possible Micron litigation outcomes and settlement speculation following Netlist’s August Samsung agreement, but no new settlement or court decision was confirmed.